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J.P. Morgan

Global FX Strategy 2026

LIVE25 November 2025USD bearish

Overview Forecasts Trades Currencies Scenarios Technicals Volatility EM Strategy Macro Quant

Currency Views

J.P. Morgan per-currency outlook with bias, key drivers, live rates, and forecast targets

20 currencies shown

↑ Moderately Bullish

EUR/USDQ1: 1.16-1.18 → Q4: 1.20

•German fiscal spending

•Fed terminal rate

USD/JPYQ1: 157 → Q4: 164

•BoJ rate hikes diminishing effect

•Fiscal expansion

↑ Tactically Bullish

EUR/GBPQ1: 0.85 → Q4: 0.88

GBP/USDQ1: 1.41 → Q4: 1.36

•UK budget outcome

•Carry appeal

↓ Tactically Bearish

EUR/CHFQ1: 0.95 → Q4: 0.96

•European growth

•Reserve diversification

EUR/NOKQ1: 11.20 → Q4: 11.30

•High yield status

•Norges Bank on hold

EUR/SEKQ1: 10.40 → Q4: 10.60

•Fiscal stimulus

•Rate sensitivity

AUD/USDQ1: 0.67 → Q4: 0.68

•High yield in G10

NZD/USDQ1: 0.58 → Q4: 0.59

•Growth recovery

•RBNZ deep cuts

↓ Moderately Bearish

USD/CADQ1: 1.38 → Q4: 1.42

•USMCA renegotiation

•Low growth potential

DXYQ1: 97.8 → Q4: 97.7

•Fed dovish asymmetry

•Twin deficits

↑ Moderately Bullish

USD/CNYQ1: 7.05 → Q4: 7.05

•PBoC guidance

•Domestic optimism

USD/MXNQ1: 18.25 → Q4: 18.25

•USMCA renegotiation

•Clean positioning

USD/TRYQ1: 45.50 → Q4: 53.50

•Lira management policy

•Moderate carry

USD/ZARQ1: 17.00 → Q4: 16.25

•Commodity terms of trade

•Cheap valuations

USD/PLNQ1: 3.52 → Q4: 3.38

•End of cutting cycle

•Inflation convergence

EUR/HUFQ1: 375 → Q4: 308

•Election risk April 2026

USD/BRLQ1: 5.40 → Q4: 5.55

•Presidential elections Oct 2026

•Carry appeal

USD/CLPQ1: 880 → Q4: 870

•Political transition

•Copper exports

USD/KRWQ1: 1430 → Q4: 1440

•NPS hedging dynamics

•WGBI inflows

USD/INRQ1: 88.00 → Q4: 88.60

•Portfolio flows