US Rates - I won’t see you next time
J.P. Morgan US Rates strategists analyze the April FOMC decision and preview the upcoming Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement, focusing on implications for short-duration and rate derivatives strategies.
What the desk is arguing
J.P. Morgan strategists Teresa Ho, Ipek Ozil, and Amanda Berke break down the April FOMC decision, assessing its impact on US rates markets and providing a preview of next week's Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement. They highlight implications for short-duration strategies and interest rate derivatives.
Where it sits in our coverage
This commentary aligns with our consensus view that the Fed remains patient on rate cuts, but our firm spread indicates a cautious near-term outlook for US duration, favoring short-end positioning ahead of refunding supply.
How other firms see it
No specific firm views are cited in this commentary. However, other banks (e.g., Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley) may see the FOMC decision as more hawkish, while Barclays or Deutsche Bank could emphasize the refunding risks.
How firms align with this view
Key takeaways
- 01April FOMC decision reinforces patient Fed stance; market recalibrating rate cut expectations.
- 02Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement next week key for supply dynamics and curve positioning.
- 03Focus on short-duration and rate derivatives strategies amid policy uncertainty.
Market implications
The FOMC's patient stance suggests further delays in rate cuts, which should support front-end yields and steepen the curve as refunding supply weighs on long end. Rate volatility may remain elevated ahead of refunding details.
Risks to this view
If refunding announcement shows larger-than-expected coupon increases, long-end yields could spike, causing curve steepening. Conversely, a more dovish Fed shift could flatten the curve.
The Fed has spoken, now what? Our US Rates strategists break down the April FOMC decision and what it means for markets, plus a preview of next week's Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement. Speakers: Teresa Ho, Head, U.S.
Short Duration Strategy Ipek Ozil, Head of US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy Amanda Berke, U.S. Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on May 1, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.
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Sources & References
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