J.P. Morgan
Global FX Strategy 2026
LIVE25 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBearish
USD/USD
Bearish dollar bias in 1H26 on Fed asymmetries, twin deficits and global recover
Key Drivers
Fed dovish asymmetry
Twin deficits
US labor softness
Fiscal policy mix
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
Analysis Summary
Bearish dollar bias in 1H26 on Fed asymmetries, twin deficits and global recovery, but weakness constrained by US resiliency. High beta/yielding FX preferred. DXY trough ~96.5 by mid-year before shallow recovery in H2.