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05:58 PMConflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash 04:38 PMIn Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx 12:24 AMBarclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention 10:33 PMUS Rates - I won’t see you next time 08:06 PMGlobal Commodities: It’s Simple Math 05:22 PMGlobal FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown 09:05 PMMorgan Stanley delays Fed cut call to 2027 (more info). Middle East risk drives dollar 09:02 PMEM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season 11:51 AMTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report 09:05 AMChristina Papaconstantinou: Central banks and independence - a test for democracy 05:58 PMConflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash 04:38 PMIn Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx 12:24 AMBarclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention 10:33 PMUS Rates - I won’t see you next time 08:06 PMGlobal Commodities: It’s Simple Math 05:22 PMGlobal FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown 09:05 PMMorgan Stanley delays Fed cut call to 2027 (more info). Middle East risk drives dollar 09:02 PMEM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season 11:51 AMTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report 09:05 AMChristina Papaconstantinou: Central banks and independence - a test for democracy

J.P. Morgan

Global FX Strategy 2026

LIVE25 November 2025USD bearish

Overview Forecasts Trades Currencies Scenarios Technicals Volatility EM Strategy Macro Quant

FX Research · Year-End 2026

25 November 2025USD bearish

Meera Chandan · Arindam Sandilya

ACCURACY · 2023–2024

36.7%Hit rate

695 bpsAvg error

43.3%Direction

#6 of 8Rank

Sample: 30 forecasts·See methodology·View coverage: Global FX Strategy 2026

ACCURACY · 2023–2024

Performance Snapshot

On Track

Off Track

Forecasts

Active Trades

-1.3%

Total P&L

0.0%

Avg Progress

DXY

100.2

Target: 97.7

EUR/USD

1.15

Target: 1.2

USD/JPY

157

Target: 164

USD Bias

BEARISH

DXY Forecast Path

Target 97.7

USD Sensitivity Analysis

US relative GDP growth

+1%pt increase in US vs global growth

+2 to 2.5% on USD TWI

US FDI inflows

+1%pt FDI inflow to US as % of GDP

+3% on USD

Relative equity performance

US equities rally 30% vs RoW only 10%

USD appreciates ~2.1%

Fed policy repricing

+100bp re-pricing of Fed terminal rate

+2-4% on USD

Fed terminal (EUR/USD)

+50bp re-price of Fed terminal to 3.70%

EUR/USD consistent with 1.13

Top Currency Pairs

8 pairs

Pair	Direction	Status	Spot	Live	Dec 26	vs Spot	vs Live
TRY	Sell TRY	--	42.45	--	53.5	-20.7%	--
NOK	Buy NOK	--	10.25	--	9.42	+8.9%	--
PLN	Buy PLN	--	3.67	--	3.38	+8.8%	--
CLP	Buy CLP	--	939	--	870	+8.0%	--
SEK	Buy SEK	--	9.54	--	8.83	+8.0%	--
HUF	Buy HUF	--	332	--	308	+7.7%	--
ZAR	Buy ZAR	--	17.31	--	16.25	+6.5%	--
AUD	Buy AUD	--	0.64	--	0.68	+5.5%	--

Explore Report Sections

Forecasts

Exchange rate targets across G10 & EM

Trades

Active trade ideas with P&L tracking

Currencies

Deep-dive views per currency pair

Scenarios

Macro scenario analysis & stress tests

Technicals

Chart patterns, support & resistance

Volatility

FX volatility surface & carry

EM Strategy

Emerging market FX & rates

Macro Quant

Quantitative signals & models

Macro Trade Themes

Look out below

Maintain USD shorts

Maintain USD bearish bias in 1H26, but look for smaller magnitude and narrower breadth vs 2025. USD weakness motivated by positive growth in RoW, US twin deficits and Fed asymmetries.

Europe continues to shine

Regional RV and fiscal differentiation

Euro-linked FX are well-placed to benefit on more traction and spillover from fiscal policy. Preferred high-beta FX are SEK and NOK in DM, with tactical use of CHF as a funder.

Challenging the guardians of the JPY galaxy

Bearish JPY on structural issues

Structural issues persist (negative real yields, fiscal), and our analysts suggest that a break of ~162 with no policy resistance could risk aggressive moves higher in USD/JPY.

Tax man still lurking

Fiscal RV basket trades

Long-term trends in deficit and debt sustainability differentiation in G10 should still be a theme next year. We expect somewhat less intensity vs 2025 reflecting more moderate bottom-up projections of term premium.

Fiat gets trapped in 'da basement'

Debasement theme via FX/commodity duals

Debasement proved to be a major macro theme this year. This theme is unlikely to fully disappear next year, especially as CB independence (Fed, BoJ) remains top-of-mind.

Riding the wAIve

AI trade is the bullish carry trade in FX

Global carry is the bullish AI trade in FX given its correlation to equities and its historical performance during past innovation cycles. Copper exporters (AUD in DM) also stand to benefit; EM FX strategy is bullish CLP.

Carry on

DM-funded EM carry

DM-funded EM carry should remain a theme in 2026 given: 1) structural bullishness in EM FX, 2) moderating CB easing cycles, 3) lower volatility and 4) still-positive outlooks for both global equities & global growth more broadly.

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.