J.P. Morgan
Global FX Strategy 2026
LIVE25 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesModerately Bearish
USD/CAD
Low vol, downside risks keep CAD a funder
JPM Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
USMCA outcome
BoC rate path
Growth potential
Trade exposure
Oil prices
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMModerately Bearish1.42
BARCModerately Bearish1.36
GSModerately Bullish1.35
BofAModerately Bearish1.35
INGModerately Bullish1.34
MSModerately Bullish1.34
MUFGModerately Bullish1.34
DBModerately Bullish1.32
Key Issues for 2026
1.USMCA renegotiation risk - only G10 currency facing this
2.Lower potential growth
3.Carry headwinds from BoC deep cuts
4.Trade policy drag from sectoral tariffs
5.Narrower ranges as BoC/Fed near end of easing
Analysis Summary
Lower potential growth and carry headwinds to weigh on CAD. Trade policy remains a potentially-outsized drag given the punitive impact of sectoral tariffs that has not resolved and as the only currency in G10 facing USMCA renegotiation risk.