J.P. Morgan
Global FX Strategy 2026
LIVE25 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/ZAR
OW in the GBI-EM model portfolio. Commodity terms of trade likely to remain supp
JPM Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Commodity terms of trade
Cheap valuations
SARB reserve accumulation
Carry
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMBullish16.25
INGBullish16.25
BARCBullish16.10
GSBullish16.00
MUFGBullish16.00
BofABullish15.80
MSBullish15.75
DBStrongly Bullish15.50
Analysis Summary
OW in the GBI-EM model portfolio. Commodity terms of trade likely to remain supportive over 2026. ZAR remains considerably cheap vs its ToT with short-term fair value near 16. SARB FX reserve accumulation may slow appreciation pace.