2025 Forecast Track Record

How did banks' 2024 FX outlooks perform against actual 2025 rates?

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Year:2025 Forecasts (Published Nov 2024)

Total Forecasts

120

8 firms

Avg Error

7.9%

Mean absolute

Direction Accuracy

55%

Avg across firms

Most Accurate

ING

4.0% error

Best Direction

ING

87% correct

Firm Leaderboard

All 8 firms ranked by forecast accuracy

#	Firm	Avg Error	Direction	G10 Error	EM Error	Best Call	Worst Call	Published
#1	ING	4.0%	87%(13/15)	4.9%	2.8%	AUD(0.0%)	SEK(9.8%)	20 November 2024
#2	JPM	5.5%	87%(13/15)	6.3%	4.3%	CAD(1.4%)	SEK(10.9%)	22 November 2024
#3	MUFG	6.3%	80%(12/15)	7.0%	5.2%	CAD(0.8%)	SEK(14.2%)	25 November 2024
#4	Barclays	7.2%	67%(10/15)	7.6%	6.5%	NZD(0.2%)	SEK(16.4%)	29 November 2024
#5	MS	7.9%	60%(9/15)	8.0%	7.7%	NZD(0.2%)	SEK(17.5%)	18 November 2024
#6	BofA	9.0%	20%(3/15)	8.4%	9.9%	JPY(0.9%)	SEK(19.6%)	2 December 2024
#7	Goldman	10.5%	20%(3/15)	10.1%	11.0%	JPY(0.9%)	SEK(22.9%)	15 November 2024
#8	DB	13.2%	20%(3/15)	12.4%	14.3%	INR(0.3%)	SEK(25.1%)	28 November 2024

Accuracy vs Direction

Best performers in the top-left quadrant

INGJPMMUFGBarclaysMSBofAGoldmanDB

Average Forecast Error

Lower is better — mean absolute error

Direction Accuracy

Correctly predicted USD direction?

Biggest Surprises of 2025

Currencies where consensus got it most wrong

SEKG10

-17.1%

Consensus: 10.76 → Actual: 9.19

✓ Direction

MXNAmericas

-13.0%

Consensus: 20.32 → Actual: 17.98

✓ Direction

CHFG10

-12.9%

Consensus: 0.89 → Actual: 0.79

✗ Direction

PLNEMEA

-10.7%

Consensus: 3.98 → Actual: 3.59

✓ Direction

EURG10

-10.6%

Consensus: 1.0500 → Actual: 1.1747

✗ Direction

NOKG10

-9.6%

Consensus: 11.01 → Actual: 10.05

✓ Direction

Currency Deep Dive: Forecast vs Actual Path

Select a currency to see how each firm's quarterly forecast tracked against reality

Pair

EUR/USD

Spot (Nov '24)

1.0563

Dec'25 Actual

1.1747

Best Forecast

ING (6.4%)

EUR/USD — Quarterly Path

Dashed black = Actual market path

EUR Forecast Error by Firm

Actual Dec'25: 1.1747

Consensus vs Actual — Full Breakdown

How the average bank forecast compared to where rates actually ended up

Currency	Region	Spot (Nov '24)	Consensus Target	Actual (Dec'25)	Error	Direction	JPM	Goldman	ING	MS	MUFG	BofA	DB	Barclays
AUD	G10	0.6507	0.6425	0.6698	-4.1%	✗	0.6800	0.6200	0.6700	0.6400	0.6600	0.6300	0.6000	0.6400
BRL	Americas	6.01	5.90	5.48	-7.7%	✓	5.60	6.20	5.40	5.90	5.70	6.10	6.50	5.80
CAD	G10	1.40	1.40	1.37	-2.0%	✓	1.35	1.42	1.36	1.40	1.38	1.41	1.45	1.40
CHF	G10	0.88	0.89	0.79	-12.9%	✗	0.86	0.92	0.85	0.90	0.87	0.91	0.95	0.89
CNY	Asia	7.24	7.22	7.00	-3.2%	✓	7.10	7.40	7.00	7.20	7.05	7.35	7.50	7.15
EUR	G10	1.0563	1.0500	1.1747	-10.6%	✗	1.0800	1.0300	1.1000	1.0400	1.0600	1.0500	1.0000	1.0400
GBP	G10	1.2697	1.2488	1.3467	-7.3%	✗	1.2800	1.2200	1.3000	1.2400	1.2600	1.2500	1.2000	1.2400
INR	Asia	84.47	87.06	89.77	+3.0%	✓	86.00	88.00	85.00	87.00	86.50	87.50	90.00	86.50
JPY	G10	151.17	149.38	156.41	+4.5%	✗	142.00	155.00	145.00	148.00	140.00	155.00	160.00	150.00
MXN	Americas	20.44	20.32	17.98	-13.0%	✓	19.50	21.00	19.00	20.50	19.80	20.80	22.00	20.00
NOK	G10	11.04	11.01	10.05	-9.6%	✓	10.50	11.50	10.40	11.00	10.70	11.20	11.80	11.00
NZD	G10	0.5896	0.5837	0.5791	+0.8%	✓	0.6200	0.5600	0.6100	0.5800	0.6000	0.5700	0.5500	0.5800
PLN	EMEA	4.07	3.98	3.59	-10.7%	✓	3.80	4.20	3.70	3.95	3.85	4.10	4.30	3.90
SEK	G10	10.92	10.76	9.19	-17.1%	✓	10.20	11.30	10.10	10.80	10.50	11.00	11.50	10.70
ZAR	EMEA	18.08	17.95	16.59	-8.2%	✓	17.20	18.50	16.80	18.00	17.50	18.30	19.50	17.80

Detailed Firm Scorecards

Every forecast vs actual outcome, ranked by accuracy

#1ING(20 November 2024)

Avg: 4.0%G10: 4.9%EM: 2.8%Dir: 13/15▾

Currency	Region	Spot	Forecast	Actual	Error	Direction
EUR	G10	1.0563	1.1000	1.1747	-6.4%	✓
GBP	G10	1.2697	1.3000	1.3467	-3.5%	✓
JPY	G10	151.17	145.00	156.41	+7.3%	✗
AUD	G10	0.6507	0.6700	0.6698	+0.0%	✓
NZD	G10	0.5896	0.6100	0.5791	+5.3%	✗
CAD	G10	1.40	1.36	1.37	+0.7%	✓
CHF	G10	0.88	0.85	0.79	-7.4%	✓
NOK	G10	11.04	10.40	10.05	-3.5%	✓
SEK	G10	10.92	10.10	9.19	-9.8%	✓
MXN	Americas	20.44	19.00	17.98	-5.7%	✓
ZAR	EMEA	18.08	16.80	16.59	-1.3%	✓
BRL	Americas	6.01	5.40	5.48	+1.4%	✓
CNY	Asia	7.24	7.00	7.00	-0.1%	✓
PLN	EMEA	4.07	3.70	3.59	-3.0%	✓
INR	Asia	84.47	85.00	89.77	+5.3%	✓

#2J.P. Morgan(22 November 2024)

Avg: 5.5%G10: 6.3%EM: 4.3%Dir: 13/15▾

Currency	Region	Spot	Forecast	Actual	Error	Direction
EUR	G10	1.0563	1.0800	1.1747	-8.1%	✓
GBP	G10	1.2697	1.2800	1.3467	-5.0%	✓
JPY	G10	151.17	142.00	156.41	+9.2%	✗
AUD	G10	0.6507	0.6800	0.6698	+1.5%	✓
NZD	G10	0.5896	0.6200	0.5791	+7.1%	✗
CAD	G10	1.40	1.35	1.37	+1.4%	✓
CHF	G10	0.88	0.86	0.79	-8.6%	✓
NOK	G10	11.04	10.50	10.05	-4.5%	✓
SEK	G10	10.92	10.20	9.19	-10.9%	✓
MXN	Americas	20.44	19.50	17.98	-8.5%	✓
ZAR	EMEA	18.08	17.20	16.59	-3.7%	✓
BRL	Americas	6.01	5.60	5.48	-2.3%	✓
CNY	Asia	7.24	7.10	7.00	-1.5%	✓
PLN	EMEA	4.07	3.80	3.59	-5.8%	✓
INR	Asia	84.47	86.00	89.77	+4.2%	✓

#3MUFG(25 November 2024)

Avg: 6.3%G10: 7.0%EM: 5.2%Dir: 12/15▾

Currency	Region	Spot	Forecast	Actual	Error	Direction
EUR	G10	1.0563	1.0600	1.1747	-9.8%	✓
GBP	G10	1.2697	1.2600	1.3467	-6.4%	✗
JPY	G10	151.17	140.00	156.41	+10.5%	✗
AUD	G10	0.6507	0.6600	0.6698	-1.5%	✓
NZD	G10	0.5896	0.6000	0.5791	+3.6%	✗
CAD	G10	1.40	1.38	1.37	-0.8%	✓
CHF	G10	0.88	0.87	0.79	-9.9%	✓
NOK	G10	11.04	10.70	10.05	-6.5%	✓
SEK	G10	10.92	10.50	9.19	-14.2%	✓
MXN	Americas	20.44	19.80	17.98	-10.1%	✓
ZAR	EMEA	18.08	17.50	16.59	-5.5%	✓
BRL	Americas	6.01	5.70	5.48	-4.1%	✓
CNY	Asia	7.24	7.05	7.00	-0.8%	✓
PLN	EMEA	4.07	3.85	3.59	-7.2%	✓
INR	Asia	84.47	86.50	89.77	+3.6%	✓

#4Barclays(29 November 2024)

Avg: 7.2%G10: 7.6%EM: 6.5%Dir: 10/15▾

Currency	Region	Spot	Forecast	Actual	Error	Direction
EUR	G10	1.0563	1.0400	1.1747	-11.5%	✗
GBP	G10	1.2697	1.2400	1.3467	-7.9%	✗
JPY	G10	151.17	150.00	156.41	+4.1%	✗
AUD	G10	0.6507	0.6400	0.6698	-4.4%	✗
NZD	G10	0.5896	0.5800	0.5791	+0.2%	✓
CAD	G10	1.40	1.40	1.37	-2.2%	✓
CHF	G10	0.88	0.89	0.79	-12.4%	✗
NOK	G10	11.04	11.00	10.05	-9.4%	✓
SEK	G10	10.92	10.70	9.19	-16.4%	✓
MXN	Americas	20.44	20.00	17.98	-11.2%	✓
ZAR	EMEA	18.08	17.80	16.59	-7.3%	✓
BRL	Americas	6.01	5.80	5.48	-5.9%	✓
CNY	Asia	7.24	7.15	7.00	-2.2%	✓
PLN	EMEA	4.07	3.90	3.59	-8.6%	✓
INR	Asia	84.47	86.50	89.77	+3.6%	✓

#5Morgan Stanley(18 November 2024)

Avg: 7.9%G10: 8.0%EM: 7.7%Dir: 9/15▾

Currency	Region	Spot	Forecast	Actual	Error	Direction
EUR	G10	1.0563	1.0400	1.1747	-11.5%	✗
GBP	G10	1.2697	1.2400	1.3467	-7.9%	✗
JPY	G10	151.17	148.00	156.41	+5.4%	✗
AUD	G10	0.6507	0.6400	0.6698	-4.4%	✗
NZD	G10	0.5896	0.5800	0.5791	+0.2%	✓
CAD	G10	1.40	1.40	1.37	-2.2%	✓
CHF	G10	0.88	0.90	0.79	-13.7%	✗
NOK	G10	11.04	11.00	10.05	-9.4%	✓
SEK	G10	10.92	10.80	9.19	-17.5%	✓
MXN	Americas	20.44	20.50	17.98	-14.0%	✗
ZAR	EMEA	18.08	18.00	16.59	-8.5%	✓
BRL	Americas	6.01	5.90	5.48	-7.7%	✓
CNY	Asia	7.24	7.20	7.00	-2.9%	✓
PLN	EMEA	4.07	3.95	3.59	-10.0%	✓
INR	Asia	84.47	87.00	89.77	+3.1%	✓

#6Bank of America(2 December 2024)

Avg: 9.0%G10: 8.4%EM: 9.9%Dir: 3/15▾

Currency	Region	Spot	Forecast	Actual	Error	Direction
EUR	G10	1.0563	1.0500	1.1747	-10.6%	✗
GBP	G10	1.2697	1.2500	1.3467	-7.2%	✗
JPY	G10	151.17	155.00	156.41	+0.9%	✓
AUD	G10	0.6507	0.6300	0.6698	-5.9%	✗
NZD	G10	0.5896	0.5700	0.5791	-1.6%	✓
CAD	G10	1.40	1.41	1.37	-3.0%	✗
CHF	G10	0.88	0.91	0.79	-14.9%	✗
NOK	G10	11.04	11.20	10.05	-11.4%	✗
SEK	G10	10.92	11.00	9.19	-19.6%	✗
MXN	Americas	20.44	20.80	17.98	-15.7%	✗
ZAR	EMEA	18.08	18.30	16.59	-10.3%	✗
BRL	Americas	6.01	6.10	5.48	-11.4%	✗
CNY	Asia	7.24	7.35	7.00	-5.1%	✗
PLN	EMEA	4.07	4.10	3.59	-14.1%	✗
INR	Asia	84.47	87.50	89.77	+2.5%	✓

#7Goldman Sachs(15 November 2024)

Avg: 10.5%G10: 10.1%EM: 11.0%Dir: 3/15▾

Currency	Region	Spot	Forecast	Actual	Error	Direction
EUR	G10	1.0563	1.0300	1.1747	-12.3%	✗
GBP	G10	1.2697	1.2200	1.3467	-9.4%	✗
JPY	G10	151.17	155.00	156.41	+0.9%	✓
AUD	G10	0.6507	0.6200	0.6698	-7.4%	✗
NZD	G10	0.5896	0.5600	0.5791	-3.3%	✓
CAD	G10	1.40	1.42	1.37	-3.7%	✗
CHF	G10	0.88	0.92	0.79	-16.2%	✗
NOK	G10	11.04	11.50	10.05	-14.4%	✗
SEK	G10	10.92	11.30	9.19	-22.9%	✗
MXN	Americas	20.44	21.00	17.98	-16.8%	✗
ZAR	EMEA	18.08	18.50	16.59	-11.5%	✗
BRL	Americas	6.01	6.20	5.48	-13.2%	✗
CNY	Asia	7.24	7.40	7.00	-5.8%	✗
PLN	EMEA	4.07	4.20	3.59	-16.9%	✗
INR	Asia	84.47	88.00	89.77	+2.0%	✓

#8Deutsche Bank(28 November 2024)

Avg: 13.2%G10: 12.4%EM: 14.3%Dir: 3/15▾

Currency	Region	Spot	Forecast	Actual	Error	Direction
EUR	G10	1.0563	1.0000	1.1747	-14.9%	✗
GBP	G10	1.2697	1.2000	1.3467	-10.9%	✗
JPY	G10	151.17	160.00	156.41	-2.3%	✓
AUD	G10	0.6507	0.6000	0.6698	-10.4%	✗
NZD	G10	0.5896	0.5500	0.5791	-5.0%	✓
CAD	G10	1.40	1.45	1.37	-5.9%	✗
CHF	G10	0.88	0.95	0.79	-20.0%	✗
NOK	G10	11.04	11.80	10.05	-17.4%	✗
SEK	G10	10.92	11.50	9.19	-25.1%	✗
MXN	Americas	20.44	22.00	17.98	-22.4%	✗
ZAR	EMEA	18.08	19.50	16.59	-17.6%	✗
BRL	Americas	6.01	6.50	5.48	-18.7%	✗
CNY	Asia	7.24	7.50	7.00	-7.2%	✗
PLN	EMEA	4.07	4.30	3.59	-19.7%	✗
INR	Asia	84.47	90.00	89.77	-0.3%	✓