J.P. Morgan
Global FX Strategy 2026
LIVE25 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesTactically Bearish
USD/CHF
Funder for the European growth lift
JPM Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
European growth
Copper/gold ratio
Reserve diversification
Fiscal safe haven premium
SNB policy
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMTactically Bearish0.80
INGNeutral0.78
BARCNeutral0.78
GSModerately Bullish0.76
MUFGModerately Bearish0.76
BofAModerately Bullish0.76
MSBearish0.75
DBBullish0.75
Key Issues for 2026
1.European growth upside warrants EUR/CHF higher
2.Reserve asset demand and fiscal differentiation still franc-bullish
3.Growth key - low carry or SNB pushback only weigh if overseas growth strong
4.Swiss home bias shift or equity outflow acceleration could weigh on CHF
Analysis Summary
European growth upgrades warrant EUR/CHF upside even if there are still franc-bullish forces in play (alternative reserve asset demand, fiscal differentiation). Growth is key: low carry or SNB pushback would only weigh on the franc if overseas growth is strong.