FX BANK FORECAST · ACCURACY LEAGUE
Forecast accuracy ranking — 2023–2024
EOY forecast backtest across 15 currency pairs per firm. Ranks are computed over a two-year window (2023 and 2024 cycles). The 2025 cycle will be scored once the year closes.
Rankings are derived from each bank’s published year-end FX outlook (Nov–Dec of the prior year) compared to EOY spot closes. Current window: 2023–2024, 15 pairs per firm (30 forecasts total). Report dates and lead analysts are shown on each firm’s coverage page. No forecast has been adjusted or interpolated after publication.
| RANK | FIRM | HIT RATE | AVG ERROR | DIRECTION | SAMPLE | SOURCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Bank of America | 76.7% | 446 bps | 76.7% | 30 | FX Outlook 2026: Structural Dollar Headwinds |
| #2 | Deutsche Bank | 60.0% | 493 bps | 80.0% | 30 | FX Blueprint 2026: The Great Rotation |
| #3 | Morgan Stanley | 63.3% | 521 bps | 43.3% | 30 | 2026 FX Outlook: The Year of Pivots |
| #4 | Goldman Sachs | 43.3% | 601 bps | 46.7% | 30 | Global FX Strategy 2026 |
| #5 | Barclays | 46.7% | 650 bps | 43.3% | 30 | FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn |
| #6 | J.P. Morgan | 36.7% | 695 bps | 43.3% | 30 | Global FX Strategy 2026 |
| #7 | MUFG | 33.3% | 778 bps | 43.3% | 30 | 2026 FX Outlook: Post-Peak USD World |
| #8 | ING | 33.3% | 817 bps | 43.3% | 30 | 2026 FX Outlook |
Hit rate measures forecasts within ±5% of actual at horizon end (EOY close). Direction accuracy compares forecast bias (bullish/bearish vs spot) against the realised move. Composite rank weighted 50/30/20 (hit rate / direction / inverse normalised error).
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.