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Crude Oil WTI

2026 Projections · 12 Banks

Closed$67.00-0.39 (-0.58%)
$63
Updated just now
OverviewForecastsAnalysisThemesTechnicalsMacroTrack Record

Energy Commodities Research

Crude Oil
WTI / Brent

2026 price projections from 12 leading investment banks.

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$67.00
Consensus YE
$63
-5.6%
Median
$64.5
-3.7%
Sentiment
42%
bearish
LatestJP Morgan updated target to $61 on Feb 20, 2026
Most Bullish
HSBC
$73+9.0%
Kim Fustier
Most Bearish
Citigroup
$55-17.9%
Max Layton
Highest Bull Case
HSBC
$88+31.3%
Kim Fustier
Consensus
$63
Median
$64.5
Low Target
$55
High Target
$73
Spread
$18
Firms
12

Forecast Landscape

Year-End 2026 Targets

Sort:

WTI $/bbl · bordered bar = nearest to consensus

Quarterly Forecast Paths

Each firm's projected price trajectory through 2026

JPM
GS
BofA
UBS
Citi
MS
DB
HSBC
Barc
ANZ
Macq
WF

Consensus Band

Min-max range; line = consensus avg

Scenario Ranges

Bear → Bull case per firm

Citi
$45–$75
DB
$48–$76
Macq
$45–$75
BofA
$48–$78
JPM
$50–$80
Barc
$50–$80
UBS
$52–$80
WF
$52–$80
MS
$52–$82
ANZ
$53–$82
GS
$55–$85
HSBC
$58–$88

Sentiment Breakdown

6
4
1
8%
Bullish
HSBC$73
6
50%
Neutral
GS$68
UBS$65
MS$66
Barc$64
ANZ$66
WF$65
4
33%
Bearish
JPM$61
BofA$60
DB$58
Macq$58
1
8%
Very Bearish
Citi$55

Key Themes

OPEC+ Supply Unwind

bearish

OPEC+ gradually unwinding 2.2 mb/d of voluntary cuts through 2026. Pace of unwind and member compliance are key variables for price direction.

Non-OPEC Supply Growth

bearish

US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada driving record non-OPEC supply growth of ~1.8 mb/d. Shale productivity gains moderating but absolute output at records.

China Demand Slowdown

bearish

China oil demand growth slowing to 200-300 kb/d as EV adoption accelerates and real estate weakness persists. Petrochemical demand partially offsetting transport decline.

Geopolitical Risk Premium

bullish

Middle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and potential Iran sanctions keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded. Supply disruption risk remains elevated.

Upstream Underinvestment

bullish

Years of underinvestment in upstream exploration creating long-term supply risks. New project approvals running well below replacement rates.

Energy Transition Impact

bearish

EV adoption, renewable energy buildout, and efficiency gains beginning to materially impact oil demand growth trajectory. Peak demand debate intensifying.

Driver Emphasis Matrix

How many firms cite each driver

OPEC+ Policy
12/12
Non-OPEC Supply
7/12
China Demand
7/12
US Shale
6/12
Refining
6/12
Inventories
4/12
Geopolitics
3/12
Energy Transition
3/12

OPEC+ Production

Current production vs quotas (mb/d)

Saudi Arabia
9.0/10.5+1.5
Russia
9.2/10.0+0.8
Iraq
4.0/4.4+0.4
UAE
2.9/3.2+0.3
Kuwait
2.4/2.7+0.3
Others OPEC+
10.5/12.0+1.5

Cross-Asset YTD

Oil vs S&P 500 YTD

Oil
-5.8%
S&P 500Winner
+4.2%

Oil vs Gold YTD

Oil
-5.8%
GoldWinner
+11.3%

Oil vs Nat Gas YTD

Oil
-5.8%
Nat GasWinner
+22.4%

Key Correlations

Oil price drivers & relationships

USD Index (DXY)
-0.58

Moderate inverse — weaker dollar supports oil prices

Global PMI
+0.72

Strong positive — manufacturing activity drives oil demand

VIX (Fear Index)
-0.35

Moderate inverse — risk-off tends to weigh on oil

Chinese Industrial Output
+0.65

Strong positive — China is the marginal demand driver

OPEC+ Compliance
+0.78

Strongest single driver — supply discipline dictates prices

US Rig Count
-0.42

Inverse — more rigs signal future supply growth

Gasoline Demand
+0.62

Positive — transport fuels still ~60% of demand

Gold (XAU)
+0.25

Weak positive — both are commodities but different drivers

Seasonal Patterns

Historical monthly average returns

Historical Context

WTI average & year-end prices

Firm Forecasts

HSBC

Kim Fustier · 2026-01-22

Bullish
YE Target
$73
vs Spot
+9.0%
Bull
$88
Bear
$58
Brent+
$5
Underinvestment in upstream creating supply crunch riskOPEC+ maintaining discipline better than expectedGeopolitical supply disruption risk elevated

Most bullish among majors. Argues market underestimates upstream underinvestment risks. OPEC+ discipline has been better than expected. Geopolitical risks and Asian demand provide upside.

Goldman Sachs

Daan Struyven, Callum Bruce · 2026-02-10

Neutral
YE Target
$68
vs Spot
+1.5%
Bull
$85
Bear
$55
Brent+
$4
OPEC+ spare capacity limits downsideGeopolitical risk premium from Middle EastRefinery margins supporting product demand

Range-bound view with mild downward bias. OPEC+ discipline is fraying but spare capacity provides a floor. Geopolitical risks keep a premium embedded. Sees Brent $72 avg for 2026.

Morgan Stanley

Martijn Rats · 2026-02-05

Neutral
YE Target
$66
vs Spot
-1.5%
Bull
$82
Bear
$52
Brent+
$5
Supply growth slightly exceeding demand growthOPEC+ managing orderly unwindPetrochemical demand offsetting transport decline

Neutral outlook with supply growth slightly outpacing demand. OPEC+ managing an orderly unwind of cuts. Petrochemical feedstock demand partially offsetting weak transport fuel demand.

ANZ

Daniel Hynes · 2026-02-12

Neutral
YE Target
$66
vs Spot
-1.5%
Bull
$82
Bear
$53
Brent+
$4
OPEC+ output discipline key variableIndia emerging as demand growth driverAtlantic basin oversupplied

Moderately cautious with focus on OPEC+ discipline as the key swing factor. India emerging as the primary demand growth driver. Atlantic basin oversupplied but Asian imports robust.

UBS

Giovanni Staunovo · 2026-02-15

Neutral
YE Target
$65
vs Spot
-3.0%
Bull
$80
Bear
$52
Brent+
$4
Balanced market with slight surplus in H2OPEC+ gradual output increase manageableSummer driving season supporting Q2-Q3

Expects a balanced market with a gradual drift lower. OPEC+ output increases are manageable if demand holds. China stimulus measures could surprise to the upside.

Wells Fargo

Investment Institute Team · 2026-01-25

Neutral
YE Target
$65
vs Spot
-3.0%
Bull
$80
Bear
$52
Brent+
$4
Range-bound market most likely scenarioOPEC+ providing a floor near $60US economic resilience supporting demand

Expects a range-bound market between $60-75. OPEC+ provides a floor near $60 through production discipline. US economic resilience supports domestic demand. Below-average inventories limit downside.

Barclays

Amarpreet Singh · 2026-01-30

Neutral
YE Target
$64
vs Spot
-4.5%
Bull
$80
Bear
$50
Brent+
$4
Gradual OPEC+ unwind priced inDemand growth of 1.0 mb/d achievableShale productivity gains moderating

Balanced view with gradual OPEC+ unwind largely priced in. Sees demand growth of ~1.0 mb/d as achievable. Shale productivity gains are moderating which limits non-OPEC upside.

JP Morgan

Natasha Kaneva · 2026-02-20

Bearish
YE Target
$61
vs Spot
-9.0%
Bull
$80
Bear
$50
Brent+
$4
OPEC+ unwinding cuts adding 2.2 mb/d supplyUS shale production at record highsChina demand growth slowing to 200 kb/d

Expects oil to weaken through the year as OPEC+ gradually unwinds production cuts. US shale resilience and slowing Chinese demand growth create a bearish supply-demand balance in H2.

Bank of America

Francisco Blanch · 2026-01-28

Bearish
YE Target
$60
vs Spot
-10.4%
Bull
$78
Bear
$48
Brent+
$4
Non-OPEC supply growth of 1.8 mb/dEV adoption reducing gasoline demand growthOPEC+ cohesion weakening

Among the more bearish forecasters. Sees structural headwinds from EV adoption and non-OPEC supply growth overwhelming any OPEC+ cuts. Warns of sub-$50 in recession scenario.

Deutsche Bank

Michael Hsueh · 2026-02-08

Bearish
YE Target
$58
vs Spot
-13.4%
Bull
$76
Bear
$48
Brent+
$4
Oversupply of 1.5 mb/d in H2 2026Non-OPEC supply additions acceleratingWeakening refinery margins

Bearish outlook driven by expected oversupply in H2. Non-OPEC supply additions from US, Brazil, and Guyana creating a structural surplus. Inventories building toward multi-year highs.

Macquarie

Vikas Dwivedi · 2026-02-01

Bearish
YE Target
$58
vs Spot
-13.4%
Bull
$75
Bear
$45
Brent+
$4
Structural oversupply emergingOPEC+ losing market share to non-OPECEnergy transition accelerating demand destruction

Bearish on structural oversupply thesis. OPEC+ losing market share as non-OPEC producers (US, Brazil, Guyana) ramp output. Energy transition beginning to materially impact demand growth.

Citigroup

Max Layton · 2026-01-15

Very Bearish
YE Target
$55
vs Spot
-17.9%
Bull
$75
Bear
$45
Brent+
$4
Massive surplus building through 2026OPEC+ unable to prevent price declineShale breakeven costs falling

Most bearish on Wall Street. Sees oil heading to $55 by year-end as a massive surplus builds. OPEC+ cuts insufficient to offset non-OPEC supply growth and weakening demand growth.

Explore

Forecasts

All firm projections, quarterly targets & revision timeline

Analysis

Conviction scatter, dispersion, risk-reward matrix & WTI-Brent spread

Themes

Key drivers, OPEC+ dynamics, energy transition & supply-demand balance

Technicals

Support & resistance levels, seasonal patterns & inventory analysis

Macro

Scenario framework, geopolitical risks, correlations & historical context

Track Record

Forecast accuracy analysis — how each firm performed vs actual prices