Cross-Firm Volatility Analysis
LIVEComparing FX volatility outlooks, carry-to-vol ratios, and event risk across 8 firms
VXY Level by Firm
FX implied volatility index level — higher = more vol expected
| Firm | VXY Level | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| JPM | 7.0 | Subdued but watch Fed pivot risks |
| GS | 7.0 | Expect gradual vol normalization in 2026 as USD trends emerge |
| ING | 7.0 | Vol to decline further as central banks near terminal rates |
| MS | 7.0 | Vol likely to rise in H1 on Fed pivots, then compress again in H2 |
| MUFG | 7.0 | Expect gradual vol normalization as Fed eases and BoJ normalizes |
| BofA | 7.0 | Volatility expected to rise in H2 on election risks |
| DB | 7.0 | Vol regime shift likely as Great Rotation accelerates |
| BARC | 7.0 | Low vol regime likely to persist in H1 but risks building for H2 |
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Carry-to-Vol Consensus
Average ratio across firms (higher = more attractive carry trade)
| Pair | Avg Ratio | Min Ratio | Max Ratio | Firms Covering |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNH/INR | 1.94 | 1.55 | 2.25 | 5 |
| EUR/PLN | 1.85 | 1.79 | 1.92 | 5 |
| USD/ZAR | 1.67 | 1.05 | 2.28 | 4 |
| USD/BRL | 1.59 | 0.88 | 2.35 | 4 |
| USD/MXN | 1.42 | 0.95 | 1.82 | 4 |
| EUR/TRY | 1.11 | 1.06 | 1.15 | 3 |
| EUR/HUF | 1.02 | 0.74 | 1.48 | 5 |
| USD/NOK | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.95 | 3 |
| EUR/NOK | 0.87 | 0.68 | 1.12 | 4 |
| EUR/SEK | 0.74 | 0.65 | 0.95 | 4 |
Click a pair to view its research index
Vol Coverage
Themes vs carry pairs per firm
| Firm | Vol Themes | Carry Pairs | Event Risks |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| GS | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| ING | 6 | 10 | 2 |
| MS | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| MUFG | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| BofA | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| DB | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| BARC | 7 | 10 | 3 |
Carry Pairs: Live Rates
Current rates for top carry-to-vol pairs across firms
Event Risk: Cross-Firm Assessment
How different firms price event volatility
Vol Outlook Comparison
Subdued but watch Fed pivot risks
Expect gradual vol normalization in 2026 as USD trends emerge
Vol to decline further as central banks near terminal rates
Vol likely to rise in H1 on Fed pivots, then compress again in H2
Expect gradual vol normalization as Fed eases and BoJ normalizes
Volatility expected to rise in H2 on election risks
Vol regime shift likely as Great Rotation accelerates
Low vol regime likely to persist in H1 but risks building for H2
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.