Global Commodities: It’s Simple Math
J.P. Morgan highlights that the supply shock from the Middle East conflict is spreading across commodities, using simple arithmetic to quantify the impact on oil and metals.
What the desk is arguing
J.P. Morgan Global Research argues that while commodity markets are nuanced, the supply shock from the Middle East conflict is spreading and its magnitude can be understood through simple arithmetic. The report focuses on oil and base/precious metals, emphasizing that supply disruptions are likely to persist and affect pricing.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our internal consensus has not provided specific targets for this theme. We have no proprietary price targets or spread data for oil or metals directly related to this commentary. The firm spread is not applicable due to lack of data.
How other firms see it
No other firms have been cited in the source commentary. However, based on our knowledge, firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have expressed cautious views on commodity supply risks, but specific stances are unavailable for this excerpt.
Key takeaways
- 01Supply shock from Middle East conflict is spreading across commodities.
- 02J.P. Morgan uses arithmetic to quantify impact on oil and metals.
- 03Uncertainty remains high, but supply disruptions are a key focus.
Market implications
The spreading supply shock likely supports commodity prices in the near term, particularly for oil and metals. Investors may price in higher risk premiums, benefiting long commodity positions. However, the lack of certainty could lead to volatility.
Risks to this view
Key downside risks include a de-escalation of the conflict, demand destruction from high prices, or unexpected increases in supply from other regions. Additionally, policy responses or strategic reserves releases could cap price gains.
With two months of the Middle East conflict behind us, there is little certainty in the world of commodities. One thing is clear, however: the supply shock is spreading. Although commodity markets are highly nuanced, understanding the magnitude of the core issues is a matter of simple arithmetic.
In this episode, we break down the math on oil and metals. Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy This podcast was recorded on May 1, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.
Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5273094-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5287764-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5278906-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5282493-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5278073-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5282937-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P.
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Sources & References
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