J.P. Morgan
Global FX Strategy 2026
LIVE25 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesTactically Bullish
GBP/USD
Fiscal fear creates tactical opportunity
JPM Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
UK budget outcome
BoE rate path
Growth resilience
Carry vs EUR
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
MSStrongly Bullish1.4700
DBBullish1.4200
BARCBullish1.4100
MUFGModerately Bullish1.4000
BofABullish1.4000
JPMTactically Bullish1.3600
GSModerately Bullish1.3600
INGModerately Bullish1.3600
Key Issues for 2026
1.UK budget disappointment risk
2.Carry and cyclicality appeal
3.BoE easing path
4.Fiscal policy will return as focus later in 2026
Risk Scenarios
Budget relief rally1.37-1.41
Budget avoids major disappointment, growth resilient
Fiscal drag returns1.30-1.33
Fiscal policy becomes drag, BoE accelerates easing
Analysis Summary
Domestic growth could remain resilient and GBP still offers carry and cyclicality amid global growth acceleration. Underperformance should return at a later stage as fiscal policy again becomes a focus or BoE easing accelerates. Assuming a major disappointment from the UK budget is avoided.