J.P. Morgan
Global FX Strategy 2026
LIVE25 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesNeutral
NZD/USD
Improving cyclicals contend with carry headwind
JPM Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
RBNZ rate path
Growth recovery
Housing market
Immigration cycle
Low yield headwind
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
INGBullish0.6200
DBModerately Bullish0.6200
MSNeutral to Slightly Bullish0.6100
GSModerately Bullish0.6000
MUFGNeutral to Slightly Bullish0.6000
BofANeutral0.6000
JPMNeutral0.5900
BARCNeutral0.5900
Key Issues for 2026
1.Growth recovery expected - most in G10
2.RBNZ deep cuts (300bp already)
3.Low yield status generates vulnerability
4.Prudential easing could support
5.Best recovery candidate from bottom-up standpoint
Analysis Summary
Domestic demand rebounding in 2H25; further growth recovery expected in 2026, the most in G10. Prudential easing adds a tailwind to end of cycle dynamics in front-end rates which are poised to reprice early in 2026. But low yielder status generates vulnerability.