J.P. Morgan
Global FX Strategy 2026
LIVE25 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/TRY
OW in the GBI-EM model portfolio and short 3-month USDTRY forwards. Macro-econom
JPM Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Lira management policy
Moderate carry
Slower credit growth
Authorities support
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMBullish53.50
DBNeutral52.50
MS52.00
MUFG52.00
BARCBullish51.50
BofANeutral51.00
ING50.50
GS50.00
Analysis Summary
OW in the GBI-EM model portfolio and short 3-month USDTRY forwards. Macro-economic conditions consistent with authorities' lira management policy and low risk of sharp FX pressures. About 9% total return in 2026 from 14-15% in 2025.