Cross-Firm Scenario Analysis

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Comparing EUR/USD scenario frameworks and USD macro outlooks across 8 firms|How did 2024 scenarios perform? →

EUR/USD Base Case by Firm

Central scenario fair value estimate

Fed vs ECB Rate Assumptions

All scenarios across firms — bubble size = EUR/USD fair value

EUR/USD Scenario Ranges

Min to max fair value across each firm's scenarios — wider range = more uncertainty

1.05–1.35(0.30)

MUFG

1.08–1.32(0.24)

BofA

1.08–1.30(0.22)

ING

1.10–1.30(0.20)

BARC

1.08–1.28(0.20)

1.12–1.30(0.18)

JPM

1.10–1.27(0.17)

1.08–1.23(0.15)

Live rate Scenario range

USD Macro Scenario Consensus

Growth x inflation framework — how many firms model each scenario

RecessionSoft

7 firms

JPM: Bearish → safe haven initially, then weakens

GS: Sharply Bearish → twin deficits amplify weakness

MS: Initially bullish (safe haven), then bearish

MUFG: Bearish after initial safe-haven spike

BofA: Sharply Bearish → twin deficits amplify weakness

DB: Very Bearish → Great Rotation accelerates

BARC: Bearish → sharp decline as twin deficits matter

RecessionFirm

7 firms

JPM: Stagflation → complex, initially USD positive

GS: Stagflation → initially messy, then USD bearish

MS: Stagflation - complex, range-bound

MUFG: Stagflation - range-bound, high vol

BofA: Bearish → stagflation undermines confidence

DB: Bearish → stagflation amplifies USD bear

BARC: Stagflation → initially mixed, then bearish

Jobless growthSoft

4 firms

JPM: Bearish bias, 2025-style playbook

BofA: Bearish → structural headwinds dominate

DB: Bearish → Great Rotation base case

BARC: Bearish → sustained multi-quarter decline

Jobless growthFirm

4 firms

JPM: Death zone → range-bound, flipping regimes

BofA: Modestly Bearish → competing forces

DB: Modestly Bearish → Fed constrained

BARC: Range-bound → flipping regimes

Jobs growth re-emergingSoft

4 firms

JPM: Death zone → pro-cyclical but messy

BofA: Neutral → growth offsets deficits

DB: Neutral → competing forces

BARC: Mildly bearish → global recovery lifts all boats

Jobs growth re-emergingFirm

4 firms

JPM: Bullish → US exceptionalism returns

BofA: Modestly Bullish → US exceptionalism lite

DB: Modestly Bullish → only scenario USD rallies

BARC: Neutral to mildly bullish → US exceptionalism partial return

Soft landingDeclining

2 firms

MS: Bearish - base case for H1 2026

MUFG: Bearish - our base case

Soft landingSticky

2 firms

MS: Mixed - flips between bearish and neutral

MUFG: Moderately bearish - slower USD decline

ReaccelerationSoft

2 firms

MS: Neutral to slightly bullish

MUFG: Neutral - goldilocks for risk assets

ReaccelerationFirm

2 firms

MS: Bullish - US exceptionalism returns

MUFG: Bullish - US exceptionalism 2.0

Below trendSoft

1 firm

GS: Bearish → Goldman base case

Below trendFirm

1 firm

GS: Range-bound with bearish lean

Above trendSoft

1 firm

GS: Moderately bearish → global risk-on

Above trendFirm

1 firm

GS: Neutral to modestly bullish → US exceptionalism returns

Soft landingSoft

1 firm

ING: Bearish → orderly USD decline

Soft landingFirm

1 firm

ING: Range-bound → modest USD weakness

US recessionSoft

1 firm

ING: Initially bullish → then sharply bearish

US recessionFirm

1 firm

ING: Stagflation → highly uncertain

Global recoverySoft

1 firm

ING: Bearish → broad USD weakness

US exceptionalism returnsFirm

1 firm

ING: Bullish → USD rebound

JPM Scenarios →GS Scenarios →ING Scenarios →MS Scenarios →MUFG Scenarios →BofA Scenarios →DB Scenarios →BARC Scenarios →