Cross-Firm Scenario Analysis
LIVEComparing EUR/USD scenario frameworks and USD macro outlooks across 8 firms|How did 2024 scenarios perform? →
EUR/USD Base Case by Firm
Central scenario fair value estimate
| Firm | Base Case EUR/USD |
|---|---|
| MUFG | 1.2800 |
| MS | 1.2300 |
| GS | 1.2200 |
| DB | 1.2200 |
| BofA | 1.2000 |
| JPM | 1.1900 |
| BARC | 1.1900 |
| ING | 1.1700 |
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Fed vs ECB Rate Assumptions
All scenarios across firms — bubble size = EUR/USD fair value
| Firm | Scenario | Fed Rate (%) | ECB Rate (%) | EUR/USD FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | ECB cuts, Fed unchanged | 4.00 | 1.50 | 1.1000 |
| JPM | No insurance cuts; HFL | 3.70 | 2.00 | 1.1300 |
| JPM | Insurance cuts delivered, then pause | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.1900 |
| JPM | Market pricing | 3.20 | 2.30 | 1.2100 |
| JPM | Recession | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.2700 |
| GS | ECB cuts, Fed unchanged | 4.00 | 1.50 | 1.1200 |
| GS | Fed holds, moderate ECB easing | 3.75 | 2.25 | 1.1700 |
| GS | Synchronized easing - base case | 3.00 | 2.25 | 1.2200 |
| GS | Fiscal re-rating scenario | 3.00 | 2.50 | 1.2500 |
| GS | US recession, aggressive Fed cuts | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.3000 |
| ING | Fed aggressive cuts, ECB holds | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.2800 |
| ING | Fed moderate cuts, ECB holds | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.2200 |
| ING | Both cut in tandem | 2.50 | 1.00 | 1.1700 |
| ING | Fed holds, ECB cuts further | 4.00 | 1.50 | 1.1000 |
| ING | US fiscal crisis | 3.00 | 2.50 | 1.3000 |
| MS | ECB cuts further, Fed holds | 4.00 | 1.50 | 1.0800 |
| MS | Synchronized easing, EU underperforms | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.1400 |
| MS | Fed leads easing, EU fiscal boost | 3.00 | 2.50 | 1.2300 |
| MS | US recession, global risk-off | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.1800 |
| MS | US rebound, Fed hawkish pivot | 3.50 | 2.50 | 1.1600 |
| MUFG | ECB overtightens, Fed holds | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.1200 |
| MUFG | Synchronized easing, EU fiscal boost | 3.00 | 2.50 | 1.2400 |
| MUFG | Fed leads deep easing | 2.50 | 2.50 | 1.2800 |
| MUFG | US recession | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.3200 |
| MUFG | US exceptionalism returns | 4.50 | 2.00 | 1.0800 |
| BofA | ECB cuts further, Fed holds | 4.00 | 1.50 | 1.0800 |
| BofA | Gradual convergence | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.1500 |
| BofA | Base case: fiscal boost | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.2000 |
| BofA | Full fiscal impact | 3.00 | 2.50 | 1.2500 |
| BofA | US recession + EU fiscal | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.3000 |
| DB | European fiscal failure | 4.00 | 1.50 | 1.0500 |
| DB | Gradual convergence | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.1500 |
| DB | Base case: Great Rotation | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.2200 |
| DB | Full rotation + fiscal boost | 3.00 | 2.50 | 1.2800 |
| DB | US recession + full rotation | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.3500 |
| BARC | ECB forced deeper, Fed holds | 4.00 | 1.50 | 1.0800 |
| BARC | Slow convergence | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.1400 |
| BARC | Base case: navigating the turn | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.1900 |
| BARC | Fiscal acceleration | 3.00 | 2.50 | 1.2400 |
| BARC | US recession | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.2800 |
EUR/USD Scenario Ranges
Min to max fair value across each firm's scenarios — wider range = more uncertainty
DB
1.05–1.35(0.30)
MUFG
1.08–1.32(0.24)
BofA
1.08–1.30(0.22)
ING
1.10–1.30(0.20)
BARC
1.08–1.28(0.20)
GS
1.12–1.30(0.18)
JPM
1.10–1.27(0.17)
MS
1.08–1.23(0.15)
Live rate Scenario range
USD Macro Scenario Consensus
Growth x inflation framework — how many firms model each scenario
RecessionSoft
7 firmsJPM: Bearish → safe haven initially, then weakens
GS: Sharply Bearish → twin deficits amplify weakness
MS: Initially bullish (safe haven), then bearish
MUFG: Bearish after initial safe-haven spike
BofA: Sharply Bearish → twin deficits amplify weakness
DB: Very Bearish → Great Rotation accelerates
BARC: Bearish → but orderly decline
RecessionFirm
7 firmsJPM: Stagflation → complex, initially USD positive
GS: Stagflation → initially messy, then USD bearish
MS: Stagflation - complex, range-bound
MUFG: Stagflation - range-bound, high vol
BofA: Bearish → stagflation undermines confidence
DB: Bearish → stagflation amplifies USD bear
BARC: Complex → stagflation scenario
Jobless growthSoft
4 firmsJPM: Bearish bias, 2025-style playbook
BofA: Bearish → structural headwinds dominate
DB: Bearish → Great Rotation base case
BARC: Moderately Bearish → base case
Jobless growthFirm
4 firmsJPM: Death zone → range-bound, flipping regimes
BofA: Modestly Bearish → competing forces
DB: Modestly Bearish → Fed constrained
BARC: Neutral → competing forces
Jobs growth re-emergingSoft
4 firmsJPM: Death zone → pro-cyclical but messy
BofA: Neutral → growth offsets deficits
DB: Neutral → competing forces
BARC: Neutral to slight bearish → Goldilocks
Jobs growth re-emergingFirm
4 firmsJPM: Bullish → US exceptionalism returns
BofA: Modestly Bullish → US exceptionalism lite
DB: Modestly Bullish → only scenario USD rallies
BARC: Modestly Bullish → US resilience
Soft landingDeclining
2 firmsMS: Bearish - base case for H1 2026
MUFG: Bearish - our base case
Soft landingSticky
2 firmsMS: Mixed - flips between bearish and neutral
MUFG: Moderately bearish - slower USD decline
ReaccelerationSoft
2 firmsMS: Neutral to slightly bullish
MUFG: Neutral - goldilocks for risk assets
ReaccelerationFirm
2 firmsMS: Bullish - US exceptionalism returns
MUFG: Bullish - US exceptionalism 2.0
Below trendSoft
1 firmGS: Bearish → Goldman base case
Below trendFirm
1 firmGS: Range-bound with bearish lean
Above trendSoft
1 firmGS: Moderately bearish → global risk-on
Above trendFirm
1 firmGS: Neutral to modestly bullish → US exceptionalism returns
Soft landingSoft
1 firmING: Bearish → orderly USD decline
Soft landingFirm
1 firmING: Range-bound → modest USD weakness
US recessionSoft
1 firmING: Initially bullish → then sharply bearish
US recessionFirm
1 firmING: Stagflation → highly uncertain
Global recoverySoft
1 firmING: Bearish → broad USD weakness
US exceptionalism returnsFirm
1 firmING: Bullish → USD rebound
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.