ING
2026 FX Outlook
Performance Snapshot
DXY
100.2
Target: 95
EUR/USD
1.15
Target: 1.22
USD/JPY
157
Target: 152
USD Bias
BEARISH
DXY Forecast Path
USD Sensitivity Analysis
Top Currency Pairs
| Pair | Direction | Status | Spot | Live | Trend | Dec 26 | vs Spot | vs Live |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY | Sell TRY | -- | 42.45 | -- | 50.5 | -15.9% | -- | |
| AUD | Buy AUD | -- | 0.64 | -- | 0.73 | +14.1% | -- | |
| SEK | Buy SEK | -- | 9.54 | -- | 8.44 | +11.5% | -- | |
| NOK | Buy NOK | -- | 10.25 | -- | 9.1 | +11.2% | -- | |
| NZD | Buy NZD | -- | 0.56 | -- | 0.62 | +10.7% | -- | |
| HUF | Buy HUF | -- | 332 | -- | 305 | +8.1% | -- | |
| PLN | Buy PLN | -- | 3.67 | -- | 3.38 | +7.9% | -- | |
| ZAR | Buy ZAR | -- | 17.31 | -- | 16.25 | +6.5% | -- |
Explore Report Sections
Macro Trade Themes
Looking Beyond the Dollar
Broad USD weakness trades
The dollar's overvaluation, widening twin deficits, and Fed easing cycle create a structural bearish USD backdrop for 2026. Position for broad-based dollar weakness across G10 and EM, with preference for high-beta and commodity-linked currencies.
Euro Fiscal Momentum
Long EUR on structural tailwinds
German fiscal expansion, EU defense spending initiatives, and the NextGenEU infrastructure pipeline provide a multi-year structural tailwind for the euro. The ECB-Fed rate convergence amplifies the move. EUR/USD should trade sustainably above 1.20 in H2 2026.
Antipodean Carry
Long AUD and NZD on yield and valuation
AUD is our top G10 pick with 14% upside to year-end target of 0.73. The RBA's reluctance to cut keeps AUD carry attractive, while deeply undervalued levels and commodity price support add to the case. NZD offers similar but smaller upside.
Scandi Value
Long NOK and SEK on deep undervaluation
Scandinavian currencies remain deeply undervalued on REER metrics. NOK benefits from oil revenues and Norges Bank's hawkish stance, while SEK is lifted by European fiscal spillovers. Both should appreciate meaningfully vs EUR in 2026.
EM Carry in Low Vol
Selective EM longs in benign environment
Low FX volatility and supportive global growth create an attractive environment for EM carry trades. Prefer high-yielding EM currencies with improving fundamentals: BRL, MXN, ZAR, and PLN. Avoid TRY given managed depreciation and political risks.