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05:58 PMConflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash 04:38 PMIn Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx 12:24 AMBarclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention 10:33 PMUS Rates - I won’t see you next time 08:06 PMGlobal Commodities: It’s Simple Math 05:22 PMGlobal FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown 09:05 PMMorgan Stanley delays Fed cut call to 2027 (more info). Middle East risk drives dollar 09:02 PMEM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season 11:51 AMTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report 09:05 AMChristina Papaconstantinou: Central banks and independence - a test for democracy 05:58 PMConflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash 04:38 PMIn Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx 12:24 AMBarclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention 10:33 PMUS Rates - I won’t see you next time 08:06 PMGlobal Commodities: It’s Simple Math 05:22 PMGlobal FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown 09:05 PMMorgan Stanley delays Fed cut call to 2027 (more info). Middle East risk drives dollar 09:02 PMEM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season 11:51 AMTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report 09:05 AMChristina Papaconstantinou: Central banks and independence - a test for democracy

Deutsche Bank

FX Blueprint 2026: The Great Rotation

LIVE12 December 2025USD bearish

Overview Forecasts Trades Currencies Scenarios Technicals Volatility EM Strategy Macro Quant

FX Research · Year-End 2026

12 December 2025USD bearish

George Saravelos · Shreyas Gopal

ACCURACY · 2023–2024

60.0%Hit rate

493 bpsAvg error

80.0%Direction

#2 of 8Rank

Sample: 30 forecasts·See methodology·View coverage: FX Blueprint 2026: The Great Rotation

ACCURACY · 2023–2024

Performance Snapshot

On Track

Off Track

Forecasts

Active Trades

+0.0%

Total P&L

0.0%

Avg Progress

DXY

100.2

Target: 92

EUR/USD

1.15

Target: 1.25

USD/JPY

157

Target: 143

USD Bias

BEARISH

DXY Forecast Path

Target 92

USD Sensitivity Analysis

Capital flow rotation

$200bn net capital outflow from US assets

-3 to 4% on USD TWI

German fiscal multiplier

Full implementation of €1tn infrastructure plan

+4-5% on EUR/USD over 2 years

BoJ rate normalization

BoJ hikes to 1% terminal rate

-8 to 10% on USD/JPY

EM rebalancing flows

WGBI, EMBI rebalancing drives $100bn into EM

-2 to 3% on USD vs EM

US fiscal deterioration

US deficit widens to 8% of GDP

-2 to 3% on USD via term premium

Top Currency Pairs

8 pairs

Pair	Direction	Status	Spot	Live	Dec 26	vs Spot	vs Live
TRY	Sell TRY	--	42.45	--	52.5	-19.1%	--
HUF	Buy HUF	--	332	--	288	+15.3%	--
PLN	Buy PLN	--	3.67	--	3.25	+12.9%	--
AUD	Buy AUD	--	0.64	--	0.72	+12.5%	--
SEK	Buy SEK	--	9.54	--	8.5	+12.2%	--
NOK	Buy NOK	--	10.25	--	9.15	+12.0%	--
ZAR	Buy ZAR	--	17.31	--	15.5	+11.7%	--
NZD	Buy NZD	--	0.56	--	0.62	+10.7%	--

Explore Report Sections

Forecasts

Exchange rate targets across G10 & EM

Trades

Active trade ideas with P&L tracking

Currencies

Deep-dive views per currency pair

Scenarios

Macro scenario analysis & stress tests

Technicals

Chart patterns, support & resistance

Volatility

FX volatility surface & carry

EM Strategy

Emerging market FX & rates

Macro Quant

Quantitative signals & models

Macro Trade Themes

The Great Rotation

Massive capital outflows from USD

The defining macro theme for 2026 is the Great Rotation -- a tectonic shift of global capital away from US assets toward Europe and Asia. Years of US asset overweight in global portfolios, combined with deteriorating US twin deficits and the emergence of European fiscal stimulus, create the conditions for a multi-year USD bear market. This is our highest conviction theme.

German Fiscal Supercycle

EUR on €1tn infrastructure

Germany's historic fiscal pivot represents a structural shift for European growth. The €1 trillion infrastructure and defense spending plan will lift Eurozone GDP by 0.5-1.0%pt annually, transform the growth outlook, and narrow the US-Europe growth gap that has driven USD strength for over a decade.

Yen's Revenge

JPY strongest conviction trade

JPY is our strongest single-currency conviction trade. The yen is 40% undervalued on REER, BoJ is normalizing while other CBs ease, and the carry trade is increasingly crowded. Any risk-off event could trigger a violent carry unwind. USD/JPY at 143 by year-end is achievable and potentially conservative.

Scandi Leverage

NOK/SEK high beta to Europe

Scandinavian currencies offer the highest beta to our European recovery thesis. NOK benefits from yield advantage and fiscal strength; SEK from rate sensitivity and manufacturing leverage. Both are significantly undervalued and will benefit disproportionately from the German fiscal supercycle.

EM Re-Rating

Broad EM longs

EM currencies are poised for a broad re-rating as the Great Rotation redirects capital toward higher-yielding markets. WGBI and EMBI rebalancing provide technical flow support, while improving fundamentals in key markets (ZAR, PLN, HUF) offer fundamental justification.

Compare with Other Firms

J.P. Morgan Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley Bank of America Barclays MUFG ING

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