Goldman Sachs
Global FX Strategy 2026
Performance Snapshot
DXY
100.2
Target: 93
EUR/USD
1.15
Target: 1.25
USD/JPY
157
Target: 148
USD Bias
BEARISH
DXY Forecast Path
USD Sensitivity Analysis
Top Currency Pairs
| Pair | Direction | Status | Spot | Live | Trend | Dec 26 | vs Spot | vs Live |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY | Sell TRY | -- | 42.45 | -- | 50 | -15.1% | -- | |
| HUF | Buy HUF | -- | 332 | -- | 300 | +10.7% | -- | |
| PLN | Buy PLN | -- | 3.67 | -- | 3.35 | +9.6% | -- | |
| AUD | Buy AUD | -- | 0.64 | -- | 0.7 | +9.4% | -- | |
| EUR | Buy EUR | -- | 1.15 | -- | 1.25 | +8.7% | -- | |
| ZAR | Buy ZAR | -- | 17.31 | -- | 16 | +8.2% | -- | |
| NOK | Buy NOK | -- | 10.25 | -- | 9.5 | +7.9% | -- | |
| SEK | Buy SEK | -- | 9.54 | -- | 8.9 | +7.2% | -- |
Explore Report Sections
Macro Trade Themes
Different Dollar Downside
Selective USD shorts, not broad-based
USD weakness in 2026 will be 'different' from past bear cycles - concentrated in EUR, JPY, and select commodity FX rather than broad-based. Short USD selectively against currencies with structural tailwinds while avoiding low-yielders without fundamental catalysts.
Euro Structural Re-rating
Long EUR on fiscal and defense spending
European fiscal expansion represents a structural shift for the euro. German infrastructure spending, EU-wide defense coordination, and improved growth momentum create a multi-year EUR tailwind. This is not just a USD story - EUR should outperform on crosses too.
Yen Recovery Trade
Long JPY on BOJ normalization
BOJ rate normalization toward 0.75% combined with Fed easing creates real yield convergence favoring JPY. Carry trade unwind risks are asymmetric - when they unwind, they unwind fast. MoF intervention credibility intact. Position for USD/JPY at 148 by year-end.
Commodity FX Carry
Long AUD, NOK on terms of trade and yield
Commodity FX offers an attractive combination of carry and terms-of-trade upside. AUD benefits from base metals demand and RBA on hold; NOK from oil stability and Norges Bank hold. Both currencies are cheap on valuation metrics and benefit from European/global growth acceleration.
EM Selective Carry
Long BRL, ZAR on carry and fundamentals
EM carry remains attractive but selectivity is key. BRL offers highest real carry in EM with supportive commodity backdrop; ZAR benefits from political stability under GNU and cheap valuations. Avoid EM currencies with election risk or weak fundamentals. Fund EM longs from USD, not EUR.