Name: Investment Bank FX Research Directory
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05:58 PMConflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash 04:38 PMIn Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx 12:24 AMBarclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention 10:33 PMUS Rates - I won’t see you next time 08:06 PMGlobal Commodities: It’s Simple Math 05:22 PMGlobal FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown 09:05 PMMorgan Stanley delays Fed cut call to 2027 (more info). Middle East risk drives dollar 09:02 PMEM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season 11:51 AMTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report 09:05 AMChristina Papaconstantinou: Central banks and independence - a test for democracy 05:58 PMConflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash 04:38 PMIn Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx 12:24 AMBarclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention 10:33 PMUS Rates - I won’t see you next time 08:06 PMGlobal Commodities: It’s Simple Math 05:22 PMGlobal FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown 09:05 PMMorgan Stanley delays Fed cut call to 2027 (more info). Middle East risk drives dollar 09:02 PMEM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season 11:51 AMTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report 09:05 AMChristina Papaconstantinou: Central banks and independence - a test for democracy

Goldman Sachs

Global FX Strategy 2026

LIVE10 January 2026USD bearish

Overview Forecasts Trades Currencies Scenarios Technicals Volatility EM Strategy Macro Quant

FX Research · Year-End 2026

10 January 2026USD bearish

Kamakshya Trivedi · Michael Cahill

ACCURACY · 2023–2024

43.3%Hit rate

601 bpsAvg error

46.7%Direction

#4 of 8Rank

Sample: 30 forecasts·See methodology·View coverage: Global FX Strategy 2026

ACCURACY · 2023–2024

Performance Snapshot

On Track

Off Track

Forecasts

Active Trades

+23.6%

Total P&L

0.0%

Avg Progress

DXY

100.2

Target: 93

EUR/USD

1.15

Target: 1.25

USD/JPY

157

Target: 148

USD Bias

BEARISH

DXY Forecast Path

Target 93

USD Sensitivity Analysis

US relative GDP growth

+1%pt increase in US vs global growth

+2 to 3% on USD TWI

Real rate differentials

+100bp widening in US-EU real rate spread

+3-4% on EUR/USD

Relative equity performance

US equities rally 20% vs RoW only 5%

USD appreciates ~1.8%

Fed policy repricing

+100bp re-pricing of Fed terminal rate

+3-5% on USD

European fiscal expansion

+1% of GDP additional EU defense/infra spending

EUR/USD +2-3%

Top Currency Pairs

8 pairs

Pair	Direction	Status	Spot	Live	Dec 26	vs Spot	vs Live
TRY	Sell TRY	--	42.45	--	50	-15.1%	--
HUF	Buy HUF	--	332	--	300	+10.7%	--
PLN	Buy PLN	--	3.67	--	3.35	+9.6%	--
AUD	Buy AUD	--	0.64	--	0.7	+9.4%	--
EUR	Buy EUR	--	1.15	--	1.25	+8.7%	--
ZAR	Buy ZAR	--	17.31	--	16	+8.2%	--
NOK	Buy NOK	--	10.25	--	9.5	+7.9%	--
SEK	Buy SEK	--	9.54	--	8.9	+7.2%	--

Explore Report Sections

Forecasts

Exchange rate targets across G10 & EM

Trades

Active trade ideas with P&L tracking

Currencies

Deep-dive views per currency pair

Scenarios

Macro scenario analysis & stress tests

Technicals

Chart patterns, support & resistance

Volatility

FX volatility surface & carry

EM Strategy

Emerging market FX & rates

Macro Quant

Quantitative signals & models

Macro Trade Themes

Different Dollar Downside

Selective USD shorts, not broad-based

USD weakness in 2026 will be 'different' from past bear cycles - concentrated in EUR, JPY, and select commodity FX rather than broad-based. Short USD selectively against currencies with structural tailwinds while avoiding low-yielders without fundamental catalysts.

Euro Structural Re-rating

Long EUR on fiscal and defense spending

European fiscal expansion represents a structural shift for the euro. German infrastructure spending, EU-wide defense coordination, and improved growth momentum create a multi-year EUR tailwind. This is not just a USD story - EUR should outperform on crosses too.

Yen Recovery Trade

Long JPY on BOJ normalization

BOJ rate normalization toward 0.75% combined with Fed easing creates real yield convergence favoring JPY. Carry trade unwind risks are asymmetric - when they unwind, they unwind fast. MoF intervention credibility intact. Position for USD/JPY at 148 by year-end.

Commodity FX Carry

Long AUD, NOK on terms of trade and yield

Commodity FX offers an attractive combination of carry and terms-of-trade upside. AUD benefits from base metals demand and RBA on hold; NOK from oil stability and Norges Bank hold. Both currencies are cheap on valuation metrics and benefit from European/global growth acceleration.

EM Selective Carry

Long BRL, ZAR on carry and fundamentals

EM carry remains attractive but selectivity is key. BRL offers highest real carry in EM with supportive commodity backdrop; ZAR benefits from political stability under GNU and cheap valuations. Avoid EM currencies with election risk or weak fundamentals. Fund EM longs from USD, not EUR.

Compare with Other Firms

J.P. Morgan Morgan Stanley Bank of America Barclays Deutsche Bank MUFG ING

FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.