Deutsche Bank
FX Blueprint 2026: The Great Rotation
LIVE12 December 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesStrongly Bullish
USD/SEK
Manufacturing leverage to European recovery
DB Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Manufacturing leverage
German fiscal link
Rate sensitivity
Housing market
Valuations
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
GSBullish8.90
JPMBullish8.83
BARCModerately Bullish8.80
MSBullish8.75
MUFGBullish8.70
BofABullish8.65
DBStrongly Bullish8.50
INGBullish8.44
Key Issues for 2026
1.Swedish manufacturing leveraged to German spending
2.Riksbank near terminal removes headwind
3.Most rate-sensitive economy in G10
4.Housing market stabilizing
5.Valuations among cheapest in DM
Analysis Summary
SEK offers the highest leverage to European growth recovery given Sweden's manufacturing exposure and rate sensitivity. Riksbank easing ending removes headwind. EUR/SEK to 8.50 is a significant call but justified by valuations.