Deutsche Bank

FX Blueprint 2026: The Great Rotation

LIVE12 December 2025USD bearish

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NZD/USD

Cyclical recovery play

Moderately Bullish

DB Forecast Path

Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison

Key Drivers

Growth recovery

RBNZ terminal

Housing rebound

Dairy prices

AUD/NZD dynamics

All Firm Targets (Dec '26)

DBModerately Bullish0.6200

INGBullish0.6200

MSNeutral to Slightly Bullish0.6100

GSModerately Bullish0.6000

MUFGNeutral to Slightly Bullish0.6000

BofANeutral0.6000

JPMNeutral0.5900

BARCNeutral0.5900

Key Issues for 2026

1.Growth recovery strongest in G10

2.RBNZ near terminal

3.Housing market rebound underway

4.Low yield headwind remains

5.Prefer AUD for commodity exposure

Analysis Summary

NZD benefits from broad USD weakness and growth recovery, but RBNZ deep cuts leave it as a low yielder. Prefer AUD for commodity exposure, but NZD still appreciates to 0.62 on cyclical recovery.

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