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Morgan Stanley

2026 FX Outlook: The Year of Pivots

LIVE20 November 2025USD bearish

Overview Forecasts Trades Currencies Scenarios Technicals Volatility EM Strategy Macro Quant

Currency Views

Morgan Stanley per-currency outlook with bias, key drivers, live rates, and forecast targets

15 currencies shown

↓ Bearish (H1), Neutral (H2)

DXYQ1: 96.5 → Q4: 99.0

•Fed easing trajectory

•Twin deficit dynamics

↑ Bullish (H1), Fading (H2)

EUR/USDQ1: 1.20 → Q4: 1.16

•German fiscal stimulus

•ECB terminal rate

USD/JPYQ1: 150 → Q4: 140

•BoJ rate normalization

•Real yield convergence

↑ Strongly Bullish

GBP/USDQ1: 1.38 → Q4: 1.47

EUR/GBPQ1: 0.87 → Q4: 0.79

•UK growth outperformance

•BoE gradual easing

AUD/USDQ1: 0.67 → Q4: 0.71

•Commodity prices

↑ Neutral to Slightly Bullish

NZD/USDQ1: 0.58 → Q4: 0.61

•RBNZ rate path

•Growth recovery

↑ Moderately Bullish

USD/CADQ1: 1.38 → Q4: 1.34

•BoC rate path

USD/CHFQ1: 0.79 → Q4: 0.75

EUR/CHFQ1: 0.95 → Q4: 0.87

•European growth

EUR/NOKQ1: 11.50 → Q4: 10.90

•Norges Bank hold

EUR/SEKQ1: 10.70 → Q4: 10.15

•Riksbank policy

•Fiscal expansion

USD/CNYQ1: 7.00 → Q4: 6.80

•PBoC guidance

•Fiscal stimulus

USD/KRWQ1: 1440 → Q4: 1360

•WGBI inclusion

USD/MXNQ1: 18.10 → Q4: 17.40

•Near-shoring

USD/ZARQ1: 16.80 → Q4: 15.75

•Commodity prices

•GNU stability

↑ Moderately Bullish

USD/BRLQ1: 5.30 → Q4: 5.10

•Presidential elections Oct

•Carry appeal

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