Morgan Stanley
2026 FX Outlook: The Year of Pivots
LIVE20 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/SEK
SEK to benefit from Riksbank pause and regional growth uplift. Swedish fiscal ex
MS Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Riksbank policy
Fiscal expansion
Regional growth
Rate differentials
Equity flows
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
GSBullish8.90
JPMBullish8.83
BARCModerately Bullish8.80
MSBullish8.75
MUFGBullish8.70
BofABullish8.65
DBStrongly Bullish8.50
INGBullish8.44
Analysis Summary
SEK to benefit from Riksbank pause and regional growth uplift. Swedish fiscal expansion provides domestic support. EUR/SEK to decline as rate differentials narrow. Best positioned Scandinavian currency.