Morgan Stanley
2026 FX Outlook: The Year of Pivots
LIVE20 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/CNY
PBoC to guide gradual CNY appreciation as domestic demand recovers. USD/CNY to d
MS Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
PBoC guidance
Fiscal stimulus
Trade surplus
Capital account
US-China relations
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMModerately Bullish7.05
GSBullish6.90
INGModerately Bullish6.90
MUFGModerately Bullish6.90
BARCBullish6.90
BofABullish6.85
MSBullish6.80
DBBullish6.75
Analysis Summary
PBoC to guide gradual CNY appreciation as domestic demand recovers. USD/CNY to decline to 6.80 by year-end. Policy stimulus and trade surplus support. Most bullish on CNY among major banks.