Morgan Stanley
2026 FX Outlook: The Year of Pivots
LIVE20 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/ZAR
ZAR to benefit from commodity tailwinds, GNU political stability, and improving
MS Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Commodity prices
GNU stability
SARB easing
Fiscal improvement
Load shedding resolution
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMBullish16.25
INGBullish16.25
BARCBullish16.10
GSBullish16.00
MUFGBullish16.00
BofABullish15.80
MSBullish15.75
DBStrongly Bullish15.50
Analysis Summary
ZAR to benefit from commodity tailwinds, GNU political stability, and improving fiscal trajectory. SARB easing cycle supports growth without undermining the rand. USD/ZAR to decline to 15.75.