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Morgan Stanley

2026 FX Outlook: The Year of Pivots

LIVE20 November 2025USD bearish
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Technical Strategy

Morgan Stanley key support/resistance levels, pattern analysis, and live price positioning

5
Pairs Analyzed
3
Bullish
2
Bearish
0
Neutral

DXY

Head and shoulders distribution with neckline at 99

MS Spot
100.2
↓Bearish
S1 97.00
S2 95.50
S3 94.00
S4 93.50
R1 100.50
R2 101.55
R3 103.19
R4 104.84
T1 97.00
T2 95.50
T3 94.00
Spot 100.20
105.75
92.59
Support
Resistance
Targets
MS Spot
Live Price

Targets

T1
97(-3.2%)
T2
95.5(-4.7%)
T3
94(-6.2%)
T4
93.5(-6.7%)

Support

S1
97(-3.2%)
S2
95.5(-4.7%)
S3
94(-6.2%)
S4
93.5(-6.7%)

Resistance

R1
100.5(0.3%)
R2
101.55(1.3%)
R3
103.19(3.0%)
R4
104.84(4.6%)

DXY has formed a textbook head and shoulders top with the neckline at 99. Initial measured move targets 95.5, with extensions to 94.0 by mid-year. H2 recovery expected but likely capped at 100. Weekly RSI divergence confirms bearish momentum.

EUR/USD

Ascending triangle with breakout potential above 1.16

MS Spot
1.15
↑Bullish
S1 1.1400
S2 1.1275
S3 1.1100
S4 1.1000
R1 1.1600
R2 1.1800
R3 1.2000
R4 1.2300
T1 1.1800
T2 1.2000
T3 1.2300
Spot 1.1500
1.2620
1.0880
Support
Resistance
Targets
MS Spot
Live Price

Targets

T1
1.18(2.6%)
T2
1.2(4.3%)
T3
1.23(7.0%)
T4
1.25(8.7%)

Support

S1
1.14(-0.9%)
S2
1.1275(-2.0%)
S3
1.11(-3.5%)
S4
1.1(-4.3%)

Resistance

R1
1.16(0.9%)
R2
1.18(2.6%)
R3
1.2(4.3%)
R4
1.23(7.0%)

EUR/USD is consolidating in an ascending triangle with higher lows since October. Breakout above 1.16 would confirm bullish resolution targeting 1.20 and 1.23. Monthly MACD has turned positive for the first time since 2021. Key support at the 200-week MA near 1.1275.

GBP/USD

Bull flag consolidation above rising 200-day MA

MS Spot
1.31
↑Bullish
S1 1.3000
S2 1.2900
S3 1.2750
S4 1.2600
R1 1.3300
R2 1.3500
R3 1.3800
R4 1.4000
T1 1.3500
T2 1.3800
T3 1.4200
Spot 1.3100
1.4868
1.2432
Support
Resistance
Targets
MS Spot
Live Price

Targets

T1
1.35(3.1%)
T2
1.38(5.3%)
T3
1.42(8.4%)
T4
1.47(12.2%)

Support

S1
1.3(-0.8%)
S2
1.29(-1.5%)
S3
1.275(-2.7%)
S4
1.26(-3.8%)

Resistance

R1
1.33(1.5%)
R2
1.35(3.1%)
R3
1.38(5.3%)
R4
1.4(6.9%)

GBP/USD is our most bullish technical setup for 2026. Bull flag above rising 200-day MA at 1.29 suggests continuation higher. Fibonacci extensions from the Sep 2022 low project 1.42 and 1.47. Weekly momentum is firmly positive with no divergence signals.

USD/JPY

Double top at 161-162 with bearish divergence

MS Spot
157
↓Bearish
S1 150.00
S2 148.00
S3 145.00
S4 140.00
R1 158.00
R2 160.00
R3 161.95
R4 164.00
T1 150.00
T2 148.00
T3 145.00
Spot 157.00
165.92
138.08
Support
Resistance
Targets
MS Spot
Live Price

Targets

T1
150(-4.5%)
T2
148(-5.7%)
T3
145(-7.6%)
T4
140(-10.8%)

Support

S1
150(-4.5%)
S2
148(-5.7%)
S3
145(-7.6%)
S4
140(-10.8%)

Resistance

R1
158(0.6%)
R2
160(1.9%)
R3
161.95(3.2%)
R4
164(4.5%)

USD/JPY has formed a potential double top at 161-162 with significant weekly RSI divergence. Break below 150 would confirm measured move to 143-140 zone. 200-week MA at 140 is the ultimate downside target. Monthly stochastics have rolled over from overbought levels.

AUD/USD

Inverse head and shoulders base with neckline at 0.66

MS Spot
0.64
↑Bullish
S1 0.6400
S2 0.6300
S3 0.6180
S4 0.6000
R1 0.6600
R2 0.6800
R3 0.6950
R4 0.7100
T1 0.6600
T2 0.6800
T3 0.6950
Spot 0.6400
0.7188
0.5912
Support
Resistance
Targets
MS Spot
Live Price

Targets

T1
0.66(3.1%)
T2
0.68(6.3%)
T3
0.695(8.6%)
T4
0.71(10.9%)

Support

S1
0.64(0.0%)
S2
0.63(-1.6%)
S3
0.618(-3.4%)
S4
0.6(-6.3%)

Resistance

R1
0.66(3.1%)
R2
0.68(6.3%)
R3
0.695(8.6%)
R4
0.71(10.9%)

AUD/USD has completed an inverse head and shoulders base pattern. Neckline break at 0.66 would target 0.69-0.71 zone by H2 2026. Positive weekly momentum and improving breadth signals support the bullish thesis. Monthly RSI base pattern mirrors 2020 setup.