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Morgan Stanley

2026 FX Outlook: The Year of Pivots

LIVE20 November 2025USD bearish
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EM Strategy

Morgan Stanley GBI-EM Model Portfolio — emerging market bond and FX allocation

EM Countries
17
FX Overweight
9
FX Underweight
1
Strong Conviction
3

Country Conviction Score

Combined bond + FX weight (OW=+1, MW=0, UW=-1)

FX Allocation

Bond Allocation

Regional Profile

Overweight positions and coverage by region

Asia
Countries
6
Bond OW
1
FX OW
3
EMEA
Countries
6
Bond OW
2
FX OW
4
Latin America
Countries
5
Bond OW
2
FX OW
2

Asia

6 countries
CountryBond ViewFX ViewLive RateCombined
ChinaMWOW--CNY+1
IndiaMWMW--INR0
IndonesiaOWMW--IDR+1
MalaysiaMWOW--MYR+1
South KoreaMWOW--KRW+1
ThailandMWMW--THB0

EMEA

6 countries
CountryBond ViewFX ViewLive RateCombined
Czech RepublicMWMW--CZK0
HungaryOWOW--HUF+2
PolandMWOW--PLN+1
RomaniaMWUW-1
TurkeyMWOW--TRY+1
South AfricaOWOW--ZAR+2

Latin America

5 countries
CountryBond ViewFX ViewLive RateCombined
BrazilOWMW--BRL+1
ChileMWOW--CLP+1
ColombiaMWMW--COP0
MexicoOWOW--MXN+2
PeruMWMW0

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