Morgan Stanley
2026 FX Outlook: The Year of Pivots
LIVE20 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesNeutral to Slightly Bullish
NZD/USD
RBNZ deep cuts weigh on yield attractiveness but growth recovery supports. NZD t
MS Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
RBNZ rate path
Growth recovery
Housing cycle
Immigration
Dairy prices
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
INGBullish0.6200
DBModerately Bullish0.6200
MSNeutral to Slightly Bullish0.6100
GSModerately Bullish0.6000
MUFGNeutral to Slightly Bullish0.6000
BofANeutral0.6000
JPMNeutral0.5900
BARCNeutral0.5900
Analysis Summary
RBNZ deep cuts weigh on yield attractiveness but growth recovery supports. NZD to modestly outperform on improving domestic fundamentals. AUD/NZD to remain elevated given yield differential.