ING
2026 FX Outlook
LIVE10 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesVery Bullish
USD/NOK
Oil wealth and undervaluation converge
ING Forecast Path
vs Prior ForecastCurrent target: 11.1Prior target: 11.2Revision: -0.9%
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Oil prices
Norges Bank policy
GPFG capital flows
NOK undervaluation
Norwegian fiscal balance
Risk sentiment
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
GSBullish9.50
JPMBullish9.42
MSBullish9.40
MUFGBullish9.40
BARCBullish9.40
BofABullish9.35
DBStrongly Bullish9.15
INGVery Bullish9.10
Key Issues for 2026
1.NOK deeply undervalued on PPP and REER metrics
2.Norges Bank keeping rates at 4.50% - highest in G10 with CHF
3.Oil revenues support Norwegian fiscal surplus
4.Government Pension Fund Global provides structural support
5.Capital flows improving as investors recognize value opportunity
6.Norges Bank's FX purchases declining, reducing NOK headwind
Risk Scenarios
Very bullish10.50-10.80
Oil surge, Norges Bank holds longer, global risk-on
Base case11.00-11.20
Gradual NOK appreciation as undervaluation narrows, oil stable
Bearish11.70-12.00
Oil price collapse, risk-off, Norges Bank aggressive cuts
Analysis Summary
NOK is deeply undervalued and stands to benefit from resilient Norwegian growth, elevated oil prices, and Norges Bank keeping rates high. EUR/NOK should decline meaningfully through 2026 as the krone's discount narrows.