ING
2026 FX Outlook
LIVE10 November 2025USD bearish
FX Macro Quant
ING quantitative strategy signals and factor analysis
Key Insights for 2026
1Low vol environment strongly favors carry strategies. G10 carry adjusted for vol should deliver best returns since 2019.
2Commodity FX momentum signals are turning positive for AUD, NZD, NOK - strongest alignment in 3 years.
3REER-based value signals show AUD and NOK as most undervalued G10 currencies, supporting our bullish forecasts.
4EM carry-to-vol ratios are elevated, favoring options-based carry in MXN, BRL, ZAR.
5USD short basket combining EUR, AUD, NOK offers diversified bearish USD exposure with attractive risk-reward.
6Scandi carry vs EUR is underappreciated; NOK and SEK offer yield pickup with fundamental tailwinds.
Strategy Returns: Strong vs Weak Equity
Avg quarterly returns by equity quartile regime
Strategy Regime Sensitivity
Weak equity return vs strong equity return per strategy
Strategy Returns Heatmap
Color intensity represents return magnitude
| Strategy | Weak Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Strong Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G10 Carry: vol-adjusted | +2.8% | +1.5% | +2.0% | +3.2% |
| Global Carry: vol-adjusted | -1.5% | +1.2% | +1.8% | +2.8% |
| EM Carry: vol-adjusted | -0.5% | +0.8% | +1.5% | +2.5% |
| Commodity FX momentum | -2.0% | +1.8% | +2.5% | +3.0% |
| G10 Value REER | +1.5% | +0.8% | +1.2% | +1.8% |
| Scandi vs EUR carry | +1.2% | +1.5% | +1.8% | +2.2% |
| EM fiscal quality | +2.0% | +1.0% | +0.5% | +0.8% |
| Global carry + value composite | +1.8% | +1.2% | +1.5% | +2.0% |
| USD short basket (EUR, AUD, NOK) | +3.5% | +2.0% | +1.5% | +1.2% |
| Antipodean long basket | +2.5% | +2.8% | +3.0% | +3.5% |
Strategy Profile
Absolute return magnitude
Live Market Context
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
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USD/CHF
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AUD/USD
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USD/CAD
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