Goldman Sachs
Global FX Strategy 2026
LIVE10 January 2026USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
AUD/USD
Commodity cycle and carry drive to 0.70
GS Forecast Path
vs Prior ForecastCurrent target: 0.7Prior target: 0.69Revision: +1.4%
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
RBA rate path
China growth/stimulus
Commodity prices
Pension fund hedging
Global risk appetite
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
INGVery Bullish0.7300
DBBullish0.7200
MSBullish0.7100
GSBullish0.7000
MUFGBullish0.7000
BofABullish0.7000
BARCBullish0.6900
JPMBullish0.6800
Key Issues for 2026
1.RBA on hold through 2026 preserves high carry in G10
2.Base metals demand from green transition and China stimulus supports ToT
3.Pension fund structural hedging tailwind
4.Credit growth at post-GFC highs signals domestic confidence
5.Technical setup is the most compelling in G10
Risk Scenarios
Very bullish0.72-0.75
China massive stimulus, commodity supercycle, RBA hikes
Bullish - GS base case0.70
Gradual USD decline, commodity prices stable-to-higher, RBA on hold
Neutral0.65-0.67
China disappoints, commodity prices soft, RBA cuts
Bearish0.60-0.62
Global recession, commodity collapse, risk-off
Analysis Summary
Bullish AUD as commodity cycle turns favorable and RBA remains on hold with elevated inflation. Australia's terms of trade improvement from base metals demand, combined with high carry in G10 context, supports a move to 0.70. China stimulus adds upside risk.