Goldman Sachs
Global FX Strategy 2026
LIVE10 January 2026USD bearish
FX Macro Quant
Goldman Sachs quantitative strategy signals and factor analysis
Key Insights for 2026
12026 likely characterized by low CB activity initially, rising as BOJ normalizes. G10 carry and commodity ToT strategies favored early.
2Relative commodity momentum (ToT) is a key differentiator in a selective dollar downside environment.
3EM carry basket yield is moderate but supported by its cyclical component and selective positioning.
4Carry should outperform value strategies in a lower vol/resilient global growth environment.
5European fiscal RV theme has legs but express via EUR crosses rather than broad baskets.
6FX vol likely to rise from subdued levels as USD trends emerge and BOJ normalization accelerates.
Strategy Returns: Strong vs Weak Equity
Avg quarterly returns by equity quartile regime
Strategy Regime Sensitivity
Weak equity return vs strong equity return per strategy
Strategy Returns Heatmap
Color intensity represents return magnitude
| Strategy | Weak Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Strong Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G10 Carry: adjusted by volatility | +2.8% | -0.5% | +2.5% | +3.0% |
| Global Carry: adjusted by volatility | -3.2% | +0.1% | +1.0% | +2.5% |
| EM Carry: adjusted by volatility | +0.2% | +0.0% | -0.5% | +2.0% |
| Global Real Carry (core) | -2.8% | +1.0% | +1.5% | +1.8% |
| G10 Commodity ToT | -2.5% | +1.5% | +2.5% | +1.4% |
| G10 Equity momentum | -4.0% | -0.3% | +0.6% | +1.1% |
| 20 Liquid Momentum (Spot) 12M1M | +3.5% | -0.8% | -0.8% | +0.9% |
| Global carry + growth + value | +3.0% | +1.2% | +1.5% | +0.8% |
| Global composite Growth (EAS+FRI RV) | +3.4% | +0.0% | +1.6% | +0.6% |
| Global Commodity ToT | +1.5% | +1.8% | +1.0% | +0.5% |
| G10 Rates momentum | +2.2% | +1.8% | -0.4% | +0.2% |
| G10 Value REER PPI | -0.5% | +0.3% | -0.2% | +0.0% |
| Global Value REER PPI | +3.2% | +0.6% | +0.3% | -1.0% |
| G10 Growth (RV FRIs) | +4.1% | +0.4% | +0.7% | -1.1% |
| G10 Composite Growth (EAS+FRI RV) | +4.8% | +0.4% | +0.2% | -1.8% |
Strategy Profile
Absolute return magnitude
Live Market Context
EUR/USD
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USD/CAD
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