Crude Oil WTI
2026 Projections · 13 Banks
2025 Forecast Track Record
Key Finding: 10 of 12 firms overestimated oil prices in 2025, as OPEC+ supply additions and slowing demand weighed on crude. The consensus average of $71/bbl missed the actual $67/bbl by $4/bbl (6.0%). Deutsche Bank came closest with a $68 forecast (just $1 off), while HSBC was furthest at $78 ($11 off).
Accuracy Leaderboard
| # | Firm | 2025 Target | Error | Error % | Stance | Revision | Improved? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | $68 | +1 | +1.5% | Bearish | 75 → 68(-7) | ||
2 | Macquarie | $66 | -1 | -1.5% | Bearish | 72 → 66(-6) | |
3 | Citi | $65 | -2 | -3.0% | Bearish | 70 → 65(-5) | |
4 | $70 | +3 | +4.5% | Bearish | 78 → 70(-8) | ||
5 | ANZ | $70 | +3 | +4.5% | Neutral | 74 → 70(-4) | |
6 | $71 | +4 | +6.0% | Neutral | 76 → 71(-5) | ||
7 | $72 | +5 | +7.5% | Neutral | 80 → 72(-8) | ||
8 | Wells Fargo | $72 | +5 | +7.5% | Neutral | 76 → 72(-4) | |
9 | UBS | $73 | +6 | +9.0% | Neutral | 78 → 73(-5) | |
10 | $75 | +8 | +11.9% | Neutral | 82 → 75(-7) | ||
11 | $77 | +10 | +14.9% | Bullish | 85 → 77(-8) | ||
12 | HSBC | $78 | +11 | +16.4% | Bullish | 80 → 78(-2) |
Error Distribution
Initial vs Final Forecast
Revision Tracking
Key Findings
10 of 12 firms overestimated oil prices in 2025. The bullish consensus was wrong as OPEC+ supply additions and slowing global demand pushed WTI to $67/bbl.
Average absolute error was $4.9/bbl (7.3%). The consensus forecast of $71 overshot by $4.
Best forecaster: Deutsche Bank with a $68 target — just $1 (1.5%) from the actual price.
Worst forecaster: HSBC with a $78 target — $11 (16.4%) off the actual price.
All 12 firms revised downward during 2025. 12 of 12 improved their accuracy through revisions, moving closer to the eventual $67 outcome.
Bearish-stance firms (4 total) had an average error of $1.8, while bullish firms averaged $10.5 — bears outperformed bulls.
Implication for 2026: The systematic overestimation in 2025 suggests consensus may still carry a bullish bias for oil. The current 2026 consensus average of $66/bbl could prove optimistic if the same structural trends (OPEC+ supply growth, demand deceleration) persist. Deutsche Bank — the most accurate 2025 forecaster — now targets $58 for 2026.
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