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Crude Oil WTI

2026 Projections · 12 Banks

Closed$67.00-0.39 (-0.58%)
$63
Updated just now
OverviewForecastsAnalysisThemesTechnicalsMacroTrack Record

Dispersion & Conviction Analysis

Deep-dive into forecast dispersion, conviction levels, risk-reward asymmetries, and stance distribution across 12 firms.

Conviction Scatter

JPMGSBofAUBSCitiMSDBHSBCBarcANZMacqWF

Dispersion Analysis

Std Deviation

$4.82

Forecast spread

IQR

$6.0

25th-75th pctl

Range

$18

$55–$73

Median

$64.5

Middle value

Mean

$63.3

Average target

Skew

Bearish

Median vs mean

Target Distribution

$55Mean: $63.3$73

Risk-Reward Matrix

Citi
-$10
+$20
2.00x
DB
-$10
+$18
1.80x
JPM
-$11
+$19
1.73x
BofA
-$12
+$18
1.50x
GS
-$13
+$17
1.31x
Macq
-$13
+$17
1.31x
ANZ
-$13
+$16
1.23x
UBS
-$13
+$15
1.15x
WF
-$13
+$15
1.15x
MS
-$14
+$16
1.14x
Barc
-$14
+$16
1.14x
HSBC
-$15
+$15
1.00x
Downside risk Upside potential

Quarterly Consensus Path

Q1 '26

$70.1

$68–$72

Q2 '26

$68.1

$63–$73

Q3 '26

$64.7

$57–$74

Q4 '26

$63.3

$55–$73

WTI-Brent Spread Analysis

MS
$5Brent $71
HSBC
$5Brent $78
JPM
$4Brent $65
GS
$4Brent $72
BofA
$4Brent $64
UBS
$4Brent $69
Citi
$4Brent $59
DB
$4Brent $62
Barc
$4Brent $68
ANZ
$4Brent $70
Macq
$4Brent $62
WF
$4Brent $69

Spread Summary

Average Spread$4.2/bbl
Range$4–$5
Consensus Brent YE$67.4

Implications

  • >Narrow spread consensus ($4-5) suggests stable Atlantic basin dynamics
  • >MS/HSBC wider $5 spread implies tighter non-US supply
  • >Brent typically trades at premium due to global benchmark status

Stance Distribution

Very Bullish0 firms
Bullish1 firm
HSBC
Neutral6 firms
GSUBSMSBarcANZWF
Bearish4 firms
JPMBofADBMacq
Very Bearish1 firm
Citi

Analysis computed from 12 firm forecasts · Spot: $67/bbl · Consensus YE: $63.3