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Crude Oil WTI

2026 Projections · 12 Banks

Closed$67.00-0.39 (-0.58%)
$63
Updated just now
OverviewForecastsAnalysisThemesTechnicalsMacroTrack Record

Macro Scenario Framework

Soft Landing

Neutral
35%

Moderate global growth supports steady demand. OPEC+ manages orderly supply increase. Oil trades in a well-defined range.

$60~$66$72
Stable demand growthOrderly OPEC+ unwindBalanced inventories

Supply Glut

Very Bearish
25%

OPEC+ discipline collapses combined with record non-OPEC production. Inventories surge, pushing prices sharply lower.

$45~$52$58
OPEC+ price warRecord US outputDemand disappointment

Geopolitical Supply Disruption

Very Bullish
15%

Major supply disruption from Middle East conflict, Strait of Hormuz tensions, or renewed Russia sanctions. Spare capacity insufficient.

$85~$98$110
Supply shockSpare capacity limitsPanic buying

Global Recession

Very Bearish
15%

Synchronized global downturn crushes oil demand. OPEC+ emergency cuts provide limited support. Inventories balloon.

$42~$49$55
Demand destructionEmergency OPEC+ cutsFlight to safety

Tighter-Than-Expected Market

Bullish
10%

Underinvestment catches up with demand. Non-OPEC growth disappoints. OPEC+ maintains discipline. Market tightens unexpectedly.

$78~$84$90
Supply disappointmentStrong demandLow spare capacity

Scenario Probability Slider

Custom Weighted Price
$66.27
Default: $66.27
Soft LandingNeutral
+$23.1035%
0%$60 – $72100%
Supply GlutVery Bearish
+$12.8825%
0%$45 – $58100%
Geopolitical Supply DisruptionVery Bullish
+$14.6315%
0%$85 – $110100%
Global RecessionVery Bearish
+$7.2715%
0%$42 – $55100%
Tighter-Than-Expected MarketBullish
+$8.4010%
0%$78 – $90100%

Historical Context

Year-End Oil Price ($/bbl)

Timeline

2020$48/bbl

COVID crash, negative prices

2021$75/bbl+56.3%

Demand recovery, OPEC+ cuts

2022$80/bbl+6.7%

Russia-Ukraine, $130 spike

2023$72/bbl-10.0%

Banking stress, OPEC+ cuts

2024$71/bbl-1.4%

Range-bound, geopolitical risks

2025$67/bbl-5.6%

Supply growth, demand slowing

2026E$63/bbl-5.6%

Consensus estimate (12 firms)

Oil vs Other Assets

2025 YTD Returns

Multi-Year Returns

Oil ranked #7 of 8 assets YTD 2025
Asset202320242025 YTD
Natural Gas
-43.2%-15.8%+22.4%
Gold (XAU)
+13.1%+27.2%+11.3%
Copper
+2.1%+12.3%+8.2%
S&P 500
+24.2%+23.3%+4.2%
US 10Y Bond
+3.5%-1.6%+1.8%
USD Index (DXY)
-2.1%+7.1%-3.2%
Brent Crude
-10.3%-2.8%-4.9%
WTI Crude
-10.7%-3.2%-5.8%

Correlation Matrix

OPEC+ Compliance
+0.78
Global PMI
+0.72
Chinese Industrial Output
+0.65
Gasoline Demand
+0.62
USD Index (DXY)
-0.58
US Rig Count
-0.42
VIX (Fear Index)
-0.35
Gold (XAU)
+0.25

OPEC+ Production Analysis

Production vs Quota (mb/d)

Summary

38.0
Production (mb/d)
42.8
Quota (mb/d)
4.8
Spare Cap (mb/d)
Market Share
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Iraq
UAE
Kuwait
Others OPEC+
Saudi Arabia
9.00 mb/d86% util
Spare: 1.50
Russia
9.20 mb/d92% util
Spare: 0.80
Iraq
4.00 mb/d91% util
Spare: 0.40
UAE
2.90 mb/d91% util
Spare: 0.30
Kuwait
2.40 mb/d89% util
Spare: 0.30
Others OPEC+
10.50 mb/d88% util
Spare: 1.50

Probability-Weighted Price

Weighted Expected Price
$66.27
-1.1% vs spot

Based on 5 macro scenarios weighted by probability

Scenario Contributions

Soft Landing35%
~$66 mid+$23.10
34.9% of weighted price
Supply Glut25%
~$52 mid+$12.88
19.4% of weighted price
Geopolitical Supply Disruption15%
~$98 mid+$14.63
22.1% of weighted price
Global Recession15%
~$49 mid+$7.27
11.0% of weighted price
Tighter-Than-Expected Market10%
~$84 mid+$8.40
12.7% of weighted price