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MUFG

2026 FX Outlook: Post-Peak USD World

LIVE19 December 2025USD bearish

Currency Views

MUFG per-currency outlook with bias, key drivers, live rates, and forecast targets

15 currencies shown
USD
G10
Bearish
Live
--
DXYQ1: 97.5 → Q4: 95.0
Twin deficit expansion
Fed easing cycle
EUR
G10
Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy EUR
Forecast path
EUR/USDQ1: 1.18 → Q4: 1.24
German fiscal renaissance
ECB terminal rate
JPY
G10
Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy JPY
Forecast path
USD/JPYQ1: 153 → Q4: 146
BoJ policy normalization
Rate differential narrowing
GBP
G10
Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy GBP
Forecast path
GBP/USDQ1: 1.35 → Q4: 1.40
EUR/GBPQ1: 0.87 → Q4: 0.89
UK growth resilience
BoE easing pace
AUD
G10
Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy AUD
Forecast path
AUD/USDQ1: 0.66 → Q4: 0.70
RBA on hold
Commodity prices
NZD
G10
Neutral to Slightly Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy NZD
Forecast path
NZD/USDQ1: 0.57 → Q4: 0.60
RBNZ terminal rate
Growth recovery
CAD
G10
Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy CAD
Forecast path
USD/CADQ1: 1.39 → Q4: 1.34
Oil prices
BoC terminal rate
CHF
G10
Moderately Bearish
Live
--
Direction
Buy CHF
Forecast path
USD/CHFQ1: 0.79 → Q4: 0.76
EUR/CHFQ1: 0.93 → Q4: 0.94
European growth
SNB policy
NOK
G10
Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy NOK
Forecast path
EUR/NOKQ1: 11.60 → Q4: 11.00
Oil prices
Norges Bank policy
SEK
G10
Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy SEK
Forecast path
EUR/SEKQ1: 10.75 → Q4: 10.20
Riksbank policy
Fiscal expansion
CNY
EM Asia
Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy CNY
Forecast path
USD/CNYQ1: 7.05 → Q4: 6.90
PBoC guidance
Property sector stabilization
KRW
EM Asia
Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy KRW
Forecast path
USD/KRWQ1: 1445 → Q4: 1385
WGBI inclusion
Tech cycle
MXN
LatAm
Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy MXN
Forecast path
USD/MXNQ1: 18.20 → Q4: 17.50
Near-shoring
Carry advantage
ZAR
EMEA
Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy ZAR
Forecast path
USD/ZARQ1: 16.90 → Q4: 16.00
Commodity terms of trade
GNU stability
BRL
LatAm
Moderately Bullish
Live
--
Direction
Buy BRL
Forecast path
USD/BRLQ1: 5.35 → Q4: 5.15
Presidential elections Oct
Carry appeal