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MUFG

2026 FX Outlook: Post-Peak USD World

LIVE19 December 2025USD bearish

Overview Forecasts Trades Currencies Scenarios Technicals Volatility EM Strategy Macro Quant

Currency Views

MUFG per-currency outlook with bias, key drivers, live rates, and forecast targets

15 currencies shown

DXYQ1: 97.5 → Q4: 95.0

•Twin deficit expansion

•Fed easing cycle

EUR/USDQ1: 1.18 → Q4: 1.24

•German fiscal renaissance

•ECB terminal rate

USD/JPYQ1: 153 → Q4: 146

•BoJ policy normalization

•Rate differential narrowing

↑ Moderately Bullish

GBP/USDQ1: 1.35 → Q4: 1.40

EUR/GBPQ1: 0.87 → Q4: 0.89

•UK growth resilience

•BoE easing pace

AUD/USDQ1: 0.66 → Q4: 0.70

•Commodity prices

↑ Neutral to Slightly Bullish

NZD/USDQ1: 0.57 → Q4: 0.60

•RBNZ terminal rate

•Growth recovery

↑ Moderately Bullish

USD/CADQ1: 1.39 → Q4: 1.34

•BoC terminal rate

↓ Moderately Bearish

USD/CHFQ1: 0.79 → Q4: 0.76

EUR/CHFQ1: 0.93 → Q4: 0.94

•European growth

EUR/NOKQ1: 11.60 → Q4: 11.00

•Norges Bank policy

EUR/SEKQ1: 10.75 → Q4: 10.20

•Riksbank policy

•Fiscal expansion

↑ Moderately Bullish

USD/CNYQ1: 7.05 → Q4: 6.90

•PBoC guidance

•Property sector stabilization

↑ Moderately Bullish

USD/KRWQ1: 1445 → Q4: 1385

•WGBI inclusion

USD/MXNQ1: 18.20 → Q4: 17.50

•Near-shoring

•Carry advantage

USD/ZARQ1: 16.90 → Q4: 16.00

•Commodity terms of trade

•GNU stability

↑ Moderately Bullish

USD/BRLQ1: 5.35 → Q4: 5.15

•Presidential elections Oct

•Carry appeal

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