MUFG
2026 FX Outlook: Post-Peak USD World
LIVE19 December 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesNeutral to Slightly Bullish
NZD/USD
NZD to benefit from broad USD weakness but underperform AUD given RBNZ deep cuts
MUFG Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
RBNZ terminal rate
Growth recovery
Dairy prices
AUD/NZD spread
Housing cycle
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
INGBullish0.6200
DBModerately Bullish0.6200
MSNeutral to Slightly Bullish0.6100
MUFGNeutral to Slightly Bullish0.6000
GSModerately Bullish0.6000
BofANeutral0.6000
JPMNeutral0.5900
BARCNeutral0.5900
Analysis Summary
NZD to benefit from broad USD weakness but underperform AUD given RBNZ deep cuts. Growth recovery provides support but yield disadvantage limits gains. NZD/USD to reach 0.60 by year-end.