MUFG
2026 FX Outlook: Post-Peak USD World
LIVE19 December 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesModerately Bearish
USD/CHF
Safe haven premium moderates
MUFG Forecast Path
vs Prior ForecastCurrent target: 0.76Prior target: 0.78Revision: -2.6%
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
European growth
SNB policy
Reserve diversification
Risk appetite
Geopolitical risk
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMTactically Bearish0.80
INGNeutral0.78
BARCNeutral0.78
MUFGModerately Bearish0.76
GSModerately Bullish0.76
BofAModerately Bullish0.76
MSBearish0.75
DBBullish0.75
Key Issues for 2026
1.European growth reduces safe-haven demand for CHF
2.SNB accommodative with negative real rates
3.However persistent reserve diversification demand provides floor for CHF
4.Less bearish than Morgan Stanley - CHF still has structural supporters
5.EUR/CHF upside limited by ongoing gold and franc reserve demand
Risk Scenarios
Bear case (CHF strong)0.73-0.75
Global risk-off, European recession, geopolitical escalation
Base case0.76-0.78
European growth broadens, SNB accommodative, moderate risk appetite
Bull case (CHF weak)0.80-0.82
Strong global growth, risk-on, reserve diversification fades
Analysis Summary
CHF to weaken modestly as European growth reduces safe-haven demand. SNB accommodative stance supports EUR/CHF higher. However, persistent reserve diversification demand provides a floor. Less bearish than Morgan Stanley on CHF.