MUFG
2026 FX Outlook: Post-Peak USD World
LIVE19 December 2025USD bearish
EM Strategy
MUFG GBI-EM Model Portfolio — emerging market bond and FX allocation
EM Countries
17
FX Overweight
6
FX Underweight
1
Strong Conviction
3
Country Conviction Score
Combined bond + FX weight (OW=+1, MW=0, UW=-1)
FX Allocation
Bond Allocation
Regional Profile
Overweight positions and coverage by region
Asia
Countries
6
Bond OW
1
FX OW
1
EMEA
Countries
6
Bond OW
2
FX OW
4
Latin America
Countries
5
Bond OW
2
FX OW
1
Asia
6 countries| Country | Bond View | FX View | Live Rate | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | MW | MW | --CNY | 0 |
| India | MW | MW | --INR | 0 |
| Indonesia | OW | MW | --IDR | +1 |
| Malaysia | MW | OW | --MYR | +1 |
| South Korea | MW | MW | --KRW | 0 |
| Thailand | MW | MW | --THB | 0 |
EMEA
6 countries| Country | Bond View | FX View | Live Rate | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czech Republic | MW | MW | --CZK | 0 |
| Hungary | OW | OW | --HUF | +2 |
| Poland | MW | OW | --PLN | +1 |
| Romania | MW | UW | -1 | |
| Turkey | MW | OW | --TRY | +1 |
| South Africa | OW | OW | --ZAR | +2 |
Latin America
5 countries| Country | Bond View | FX View | Live Rate | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | OW | MW | --BRL | +1 |
| Chile | MW | MW | --CLP | 0 |
| Colombia | MW | MW | --COP | 0 |
| Mexico | OW | OW | --MXN | +2 |
| Peru | UW | MW | -1 |