Morgan Stanley
2026 FX Outlook: The Year of Pivots
LIVE20 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/MXN
MXN to strengthen on near-shoring tailwinds, attractive carry, and improving fis
MS Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Near-shoring
Carry
USMCA outcome
Banxico policy
Fiscal discipline
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMBullish18.25
INGBullish17.80
BARCBullish17.70
GSBullish17.50
MUFGBullish17.50
MSBullish17.40
BofABullish17.30
DBBullish17.20
Analysis Summary
MXN to strengthen on near-shoring tailwinds, attractive carry, and improving fiscal discipline. USMCA renegotiation expected to conclude favorably. USD/MXN to reach 17.40 by year-end.