Morgan Stanley

2026 FX Outlook: The Year of Pivots

LIVE20 November 2025USD bearish

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USD/CAD

Name: Investment Bank FX Research Directory
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Keywords: bank FX research, investment bank reports, FX strategy, institutional research directory, bank forecasts

CAD to benefit from broad USD weakness but gains limited by BoC dovishness and t

Moderately Bullish

MS Forecast Path

Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison

Key Drivers

BoC rate path

Oil prices

USMCA renegotiation

US growth spillover

Housing market

All Firm Targets (Dec '26)

JPMModerately Bearish1.42

BARCNeutral1.36

GSModerately Bullish1.35

BofAModerately Bearish1.35

MSModerately Bullish1.34

INGModerately Bullish1.34

MUFGModerately Bullish1.34

DBModerately Bullish1.32

Analysis Summary

CAD to benefit from broad USD weakness but gains limited by BoC dovishness and trade uncertainty. USD/CAD to decline to 1.34 by year-end. USMCA renegotiation risk remains a tail concern.

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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.