Morgan Stanley
2026 FX Outlook: The Year of Pivots
LIVE20 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesModerately Bullish
USD/CAD
CAD to benefit from broad USD weakness but gains limited by BoC dovishness and t
MS Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
BoC rate path
Oil prices
USMCA renegotiation
US growth spillover
Housing market
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMModerately Bearish1.42
BARCModerately Bearish1.36
GSModerately Bullish1.35
BofAModerately Bearish1.35
MSModerately Bullish1.34
INGModerately Bullish1.34
MUFGModerately Bullish1.34
DBModerately Bullish1.32
Analysis Summary
CAD to benefit from broad USD weakness but gains limited by BoC dovishness and trade uncertainty. USD/CAD to decline to 1.34 by year-end. USMCA renegotiation risk remains a tail concern.