EUR/USD: Recovery eyes full retracement – Scotiabank
The EUR/USD pair is currently showing signs of recovery, aiming for a full retracement as highlighted by Scotiabank. This upward momentum suggests a bullish outlook for the euro, which may lead to increased USD weakness as traders position for a potential revisit of recent highs. Notably, the current consensus suggests expectations for further appreciation of the euro, making it a focal point for market participants.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD is currently at 1.1800 for March 2026, with notable variations among firms — Goldman and ING are positioned towards the higher end of the spectrum at 1.1800 and 1.1900, respectively, while Barclays and BofA set more conservative targets at 1.1700. Scotiabank's bullish perspective complements this upward trend, indicating potential alignment with the consensus projections.
How firms align
Goldman, ING, and Deutsche Bank are all aligned with the bullish sentiment reflected in Scotiabank's analysis, forecasting targets of 1.1800 and higher for March 2026. In contrast, BofA's more cautious target at 1.1700 suggests that not all firms share the same level of optimism regarding the euro's recovery.
What the data shows
Forecast revisions from recent weeks indicate a general upward adjustment in EUR targets, with Goldman raising its March target to 1.1800 and December to 1.2500. This sentiment aligns with our analysis that EUR/USD currently stands 3.87% below the consensus target, as noted in our insights available in /research/eurusd-consensus-gap-may-2026-20260507-2336.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD targeting 1.1800 for Mar26 suggests bullish sentiment is mounting.
- 02Technicians likely eyeing 1.1500 as a crucial support level.
- 03Factor in potential USD weakness as euro gains momentum.
- 04Market positioning remains pivotal ahead of geopolitical developments.
Market implications
Investors should watch for EUR/USD's movement toward the resistance level of 1.1800, as this could open the door for further gains. Upcoming economic indicators and geopolitical events may also influence the euro's trajectory, providing critical context for our consensus target of 1.1800.
Risks to this view
Should disappointing economic data from the Eurozone or unexpected fiscal policies from the ECB emerge, it could undermine the bullish outlook for EUR/USD. Additionally, a stronger-than-anticipated data release from the U.S. could reverse current trends and bolster the dollar.
Sentiment by currency
USD-EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.45
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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Soft US labor print reduces Fed rate-hike conviction; geopolitical risk-off from Iran talks risk-off flows weaken USD safe-haven demand.
EUR/USD: Binary path around Gulf deal – ING
EUR/USD: Oil shock, real rates and conflict risks – Commerzbank
Oil shock transmission via real rates and geopolitical premium widens USD carry advantage; EUR structural support erodes as terminal rates diverge.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.1700; Iran tensions cap gains as US NFP looms
Risk-off flows from Iran tensions supporting USD safe-haven demand ahead of Friday NFP; EUR/USD resistance near 1.1700 unlikely to break until employment data clarifies Fed trajectory.
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.87% Below Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1727 sits 3.87% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural divergence that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below
Eight sell-side firms hold a median Dec-26 target of 1.22 for EUR/USD while spot trades at 1.1727, a gap that demands explanation.