FX BankForecast
OFFLINE

Gold XAU/USD

2026 Projections · 12 Banks

Closed$2,920.00+26.86 (+0.92%)
$3,281
Updated just now
OverviewForecastsAnalysisThemesTechnicalsMacroTrack Record

2025 Forecast Track Record

Actual Gold YE 2025
$2,920
Avg Price
$2,750
High
$3,050
Low
$2,536
Total Return
+11.3%
Avg Error
$337
11.5% off
Direction
12/12
All correct
Undershot
12/12
Too conservative
Closest
GS
$20 off

Key Finding: Every single firm underestimated gold's 2025 rally. The average forecast of $2,583 missed the actual $2,920 by an average of $337 (11.5%). Goldman Sachs came closest with a $2,900 forecast (just $20 off), while Citigroup was furthest at $2,300 ($620 off). This systematic underestimation suggests consensus may also be conservative on 2026 targets.

2025 Forecasts vs Actual

Actual YE 2025 ($2,920)
Firm Forecasts

Accuracy Leaderboard

#FirmForecastActualErrorError %DirectionRevisions
1
Goldman Sachs
$2,900$2,920-20-0.7%
4x
2
JP Morgan
$2,800$2,920-120-4.1%
3x
3
Bank of America
$2,750$2,920-170-5.8%
3x
4
UBS
$2,700$2,920-220-7.5%
2x
5
Wells Fargo
$2,650$2,920-270-9.2%
2x
6
Deutsche Bank
$2,600$2,920-320-11.0%
2x
7
ANZ
$2,550$2,920-370-12.7%
2x
8
Morgan Stanley
$2,500$2,920-420-14.4%
2x
9
Barclays
$2,500$2,920-420-14.4%
3x
10
Macquarie
$2,400$2,920-520-17.8%
1x
11
HSBC
$2,350$2,920-570-19.5%
1x
12
Citigroup
$2,300$2,920-620-21.2%
1x

Revision Journey

BofA
Improved
Initial
$2,400
Final
$2,750
+350 revisionvs actual: $170 off
JPM
Improved
Initial
$2,500
Final
$2,800
+300 revisionvs actual: $120 off
GS
Improved
Initial
$2,600
Final
$2,900
+300 revisionvs actual: $20 off
UBS
Improved
Initial
$2,450
Final
$2,700
+250 revisionvs actual: $220 off
WF
Improved
Initial
$2,400
Final
$2,650
+250 revisionvs actual: $270 off
DB
Improved
Initial
$2,400
Final
$2,600
+200 revisionvs actual: $320 off
Barc
Improved
Initial
$2,300
Final
$2,500
+200 revisionvs actual: $420 off
ANZ
Improved
Initial
$2,350
Final
$2,550
+200 revisionvs actual: $370 off
MS
Improved
Initial
$2,350
Final
$2,500
+150 revisionvs actual: $420 off
Citi
Improved
Initial
$2,200
Final
$2,300
+100 revisionvs actual: $620 off
HSBC
Improved
Initial
$2,250
Final
$2,350
+100 revisionvs actual: $570 off
Macq
Improved
Initial
$2,300
Final
$2,400
+100 revisionvs actual: $520 off

Error Distribution

Most undershotActual: $2,920Most overshot
JPM
GS
BofA
UBS
Citi
MS
DB
HSBC
Barc
ANZ
Macq
WF
Mean Error
-$337
Median Error
-$320
Std Dev
$177

Accuracy → 2026 Conviction

Firms in the upper-left (low error, high 2026 target) were most accurate in 2025 AND are most bullish for 2026

Firm Report Cards

Goldman Sachs
Rank #1 accuracy
A
2025 Forecast
$2,900
Error
-0.7%
0% error25%+ error
2026 Target
$3,300
Implied Upside
+13.0%
JP Morgan
Rank #2 accuracy
B
2025 Forecast
$2,800
Error
-4.1%
0% error25%+ error
2026 Target
$3,675
Implied Upside
+25.9%
Bank of America
Rank #3 accuracy
C
2025 Forecast
$2,750
Error
-5.8%
0% error25%+ error
2026 Target
$3,500
Implied Upside
+19.9%
UBS
Rank #4 accuracy
C
2025 Forecast
$2,700
Error
-7.5%
0% error25%+ error
2026 Target
$3,400
Implied Upside
+16.4%
Wells Fargo
Rank #5 accuracy
C
2025 Forecast
$2,650
Error
-9.2%
0% error25%+ error
2026 Target
$3,600
Implied Upside
+23.3%
Deutsche Bank
Rank #6 accuracy
D
2025 Forecast
$2,600
Error
-11.0%
0% error25%+ error
2026 Target
$3,450
Implied Upside
+18.2%
ANZ
Rank #7 accuracy
D
2025 Forecast
$2,550
Error
-12.7%
0% error25%+ error
2026 Target
$3,350
Implied Upside
+14.7%
Morgan Stanley
Rank #8 accuracy
D
2025 Forecast
$2,500
Error
-14.4%
0% error25%+ error
2026 Target
$3,200
Implied Upside
+9.6%
Barclays
Rank #9 accuracy
D
2025 Forecast
$2,500
Error
-14.4%
0% error25%+ error
2026 Target
$3,100
Implied Upside
+6.2%
Macquarie
Rank #10 accuracy
F
2025 Forecast
$2,400
Error
-17.8%
0% error25%+ error
2026 Target
$3,050
Implied Upside
+4.5%
HSBC
Rank #11 accuracy
F
2025 Forecast
$2,350
Error
-19.5%
0% error25%+ error
2026 Target
$2,950
Implied Upside
+1.0%
Citigroup
Rank #12 accuracy
F
2025 Forecast
$2,300
Error
-21.2%
0% error25%+ error
2026 Target
$2,800
Implied Upside
-4.1%

Bias-Adjusted 2026 Forecast

Original 2026 Target
Bias-Adjusted (per firm)
Adjusted Consensus
Original Consensus
$3,281
Bias-Adjusted Consensus
$3,647
Adjustment
+$366 (11.2%)

If 2025's systematic underestimation persists, the bias-adjusted consensus would be $3,647 — +$366 above the raw consensus of $3,281. The most aggressive adjusted target comes from JP Morgan at $3,933.

Key Takeaway for 2026

The systematic underestimation in 2025 suggests a structural bias toward conservatism in sell-side gold forecasts. All 12 firms correctly predicted the direction (higher from $2,625) but undershot the magnitude by an average of 11.5%.

If 2026 follows the same pattern
The current consensus of $3,281 could undershoot by ~12%, implying an actual YE closer to $3,660
Most accurate firm says
Goldman Sachs — the most accurate 2025 forecaster — now targets $3,300 for 2026
Most revised firm
Goldman Sachs revised 4x in 2025. Their 2026 target: $3,300