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Gold XAU/USD

2026 Projections · 12 Banks

Closed$2,920.00+26.86 (+0.92%)
$3,281
Updated just now
OverviewForecastsAnalysisThemesTechnicalsMacroTrack Record

Technical Outlook

Testing Support
Spot Price
$2,920

Approaching support at $2,900, resistance at $3,000 — bearish risk below $2,900.

What-If Price Simulator

$2,300
$2,920
$4,200

Technical Key Levels

Nearest Support
$2,900
0.7% below
Nearest Resistance
$3,000
2.7% above
Range Width
$100
3.4% of spot
2,900
2,800
2,700
2,600
2,500
2,400
3,000
3,050
3,100
3,300
3,500
3,675
4,000
Support
Resistance
Spot

Support & Resistance

Support Levels

$2,900
Q1 Consensus Floor
-$20
0.7%
$2,800
Citi YE / JPM Bear
-$120
4.1%
$2,700
GS/DB Bear Case
-$220
7.5%
$2,600
BofA/MS Bear Case
-$320
11.0%
$2,500
Macro Bear Floor
-$420
14.4%
$2,400
Citi Bear Case
-$520
17.8%

Resistance Levels

$3,000
Psychological
+$80
2.7%
$3,050
HSBC Q2 Peak
+$130
4.5%
$3,100
Q3 Consensus
+$180
6.2%
$3,300
GS YE Target
+$380
13.0%
$3,500
BofA YE Target
+$580
19.9%
$3,675
JPM YE Target (Highest)
+$755
25.9%
$4,000
Bull Case Ceiling
+$1080
37.0%

Fibonacci Retracement

Fib Levels (2025 Range: $2,536 – $3,050)

Key retracement zones from the 2025 yearly low to high

100% (High)
$3,050
+130
+4.5%
Below
78.6%
$2,940
+20
+0.7%
Below
61.8%
$2,854
-66
-2.3%
Above
50%
$2,793
-127
-4.3%
Above
38.2%
$2,732
-188
-6.4%
Above
23.6%
$2,657
-263
-9.0%
Above
0% (Low)
$2,536
-384
-13.2%
Above
Spot price relative to Fibonacci range74.7% of range
$2,536$3,050

Seasonal Patterns

Average Monthly Returns

20-year historical average return by month (%)

Monthly Win Rates

Percentage of years with positive returns

Jan
65%
+2.8%
New year allocation
Feb
52%
+0.5%
Consolidation
Mar
45%
-0.3%
Quarter-end rebalancing
Apr
58%
+1.2%
Spring rally
May
48%
+0.1%
Flat historically
Jun
55%
+0.8%
Summer demand
Jul
60%
+1.5%
Seasonal strength
Aug
62%
+2.1%
Indian wedding season buying
Sep
63%
+1.9%
Strong historically
Oct
46%
-0.2%
Pre-election volatility
Nov
50%
+0.3%
Mixed
Dec
55%
+0.9%
Year-end positioning