LIVE

05:58 PMConflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash 04:38 PMIn Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx 12:24 AMBarclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention 10:33 PMUS Rates - I won’t see you next time 08:06 PMGlobal Commodities: It’s Simple Math 05:22 PMGlobal FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown 09:05 PMMorgan Stanley delays Fed cut call to 2027 (more info). Middle East risk drives dollar 09:02 PMEM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season 11:51 AMTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report 09:05 AMChristina Papaconstantinou: Central banks and independence - a test for democracy 05:58 PMConflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash 04:38 PMIn Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx 12:24 AMBarclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention 10:33 PMUS Rates - I won’t see you next time 08:06 PMGlobal Commodities: It’s Simple Math 05:22 PMGlobal FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown 09:05 PMMorgan Stanley delays Fed cut call to 2027 (more info). Middle East risk drives dollar 09:02 PMEM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season 11:51 AMTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report 09:05 AMChristina Papaconstantinou: Central banks and independence - a test for democracy

Gold XAU/USD

2026 Projections · 12 Banks

Live$2,920.00-14.31 (-0.49%)

Updated just nowYE $3,281

Updated just now

Overview Forecasts Analysis Themes Technicals Macro Track Record

Deep Dive

Gold Analysis

Conviction mapping, dispersion metrics, risk-reward profiles, and positioning signals across 12 firms.

Conviction vs Target

Gold conviction vs year-end 2026 target by firm: target price, conviction (target minus bear case), and bull-bear range width.
Firm	Target	Conviction	Range Width	Stance
JPM	$3,675	$875	$1,200	Very Bullish
GS	$3,300	$600	$900	Bullish
BofA	$3,500	$900	$1,400	Very Bullish
UBS	$3,400	$750	$1,150	Very Bullish
Citi	$2,800	$400	$800	Neutral
MS	$3,200	$600	$900	Bullish
DB	$3,450	$750	$1,100	Bullish
HSBC	$2,950	$450	$700	Bullish
Barc	$3,100	$600	$900	Bullish
ANZ	$3,350	$700	$1,050	Bullish
Macq	$3,050	$550	$900	Bullish
WF	$3,600	$800	$1,200	Very Bullish

JPM

BofA

UBS

Citi

HSBC

Barc

ANZ

Macq

5-Day Price History

Estimated

Gold XAU/USD estimated 5-day price history with day-over-day percentage change.
Day	Price	DoD Change
Mon	$2913.58	+0.00%
Tue	$2908.03	-0.19%
Wed	$2930.22	+0.76%
Thu	$2936.94	+0.23%
Fri	$2924.96	-0.41%

Mon

$2,914

Tue

$2,908

-0.19%

Wed

$2,930

+0.76%

Thu

$2,937

+0.23%

Fri

$2,925

-0.41%

Dispersion Analysis

Std Deviation

$256

Target spread

Spread

$875

$2,800 - $3,675

IQR

$400

Interquartile range

CoV

7.8%

Coefficient of variation

Target Distribution Rail

JPM

BofA

UBS

Citi

HSBC

Barc

ANZ

Macq

$2,800Avg $3,281$3,675

Quarterly Consensus Detail

Q1 2026

$2,910

Baseline quarter

Range: $2,850 - $2,950

JPM$2,950

MS$2,850

Q2 2026

$3,046

+4.7% QoQ

Range: $2,850 - $3,200

UBS$3,200

Citi$2,850

Q3 2026

$3,167

+4.0% QoQ

Range: $2,750 - $3,400

UBS$3,400

Citi$2,750

Q4 2026

$3,281

+3.6% QoQ

Range: $2,800 - $3,675

JPM$3,675

Citi$2,800

Risk-Reward Matrix

Spot: $2,920.00

Minimum Upside %

0%11 of 12 firms meet criteria

0%15%30%

Firm	Target	Upside	Downside	Ratio
JPM2x+	$3,675	+25.9%	-4.1%	6.3x
WF2x+	$3,600	+23.3%	-4.1%	5.7x
DB2x+	$3,450	+18.2%	-7.5%	2.4x
BofA	$3,500	+19.9%	-11.0%	1.8x
UBS	$3,400	+16.4%	-9.2%	1.8x
GS	$3,300	+13.0%	-7.5%	1.7x
ANZ	$3,350	+14.7%	-9.2%	1.6x
MS	$3,200	+9.6%	-11.0%	0.9x
Barc	$3,100	+6.2%	-14.4%	0.4x
Macq	$3,050	+4.5%	-14.4%	0.3x
HSBC	$2,950	+1.0%	-14.4%	0.1x

Positioning Signals

Bullish (11)

JPMVery Bullish

$3,675

+25.9%

WFVery Bullish

$3,600

+23.3%

BofAVery Bullish

$3,500

+19.9%

DBBullish

$3,450

+18.2%

UBSVery Bullish

$3,400

+16.4%

ANZBullish

$3,350

+14.7%

GSBullish

$3,300

+13.0%

MSBullish

$3,200

+9.6%

BarcBullish

$3,100

+6.2%

MacqBullish

$3,050

+4.5%

HSBCBullish

$2,950

+1.0%

Cautious (1)

CitiNeutral

$2,800

-4.1%

Probability-Weighted Price (Scenarios)

$3,308

vs Spot

+13.3%

Price Milestones

Next Milestone

$3,000

Distance from Spot

+2.7%

$80 away

$2,500Spot Progress: 28.0%$4,000

$2,500Reached

12/12 base

$2,750Reached

12/12 base

$3,000Within 2.7%

10/12 base12 bull

$3,250

7/12 base10 bull

$3,500

3/12 base8 bull

$3,750

0/12 base5 bull

$4,000

0/12 base3 bull

Conviction Confidence

Firms with a tighter spread between their bull and bear case scenarios demonstrate higher conviction in their base case target. A score above 70 suggests strong confidence; below 60 suggests wider uncertainty.

HSBC

76.3

$2,500 - $3,200($700 wide)

72.7

$2,700 - $3,600($900 wide)

71.9

$2,600 - $3,500($900 wide)

Citi

71.4

$2,400 - $3,200($800 wide)

Barc

71.0

$2,500 - $3,400($900 wide)

Macq

70.5

$2,500 - $3,400($900 wide)

ANZ

68.7

$2,650 - $3,700($1,050 wide)

68.1

$2,700 - $3,800($1,100 wide)

JPM

67.3

$2,800 - $4,000($1,200 wide)

66.7

$2,800 - $4,000($1,200 wide)

UBS

66.2

$2,650 - $3,800($1,150 wide)

BofA

60.0

$2,600 - $4,000($1,400 wide)

Consensus Drift Tracker

+$371 (+12.7%)

Consensus is drifting upward through 2026, with an average increase of $371 from Q1 to Q4.

Gold consensus drift by quarter through 2026 (cross-firm mean target). Net drift +$371 (+12.7%), direction upward.
Quarter	Avg Consensus
Q1 2026	$2,910
Q2 2026	$3,046
Q3 2026	$3,167
Q4 2026	$3,281

Q1 2026

$2,910

Baseline

Q2 2026

$3,046

+$136 (+4.7%)

Q3 2026

$3,167

+$121 (+4.0%)

Q4 2026

$3,281

+$114 (+3.6%)

FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

Institutional FX coverage in your inbox

Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.