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Gold XAU/USD

2026 Projections · 12 Banks

Closed$2,920.00+26.86 (+0.92%)
$3,281
Updated just now
OverviewForecastsAnalysisThemesTechnicalsMacroTrack Record

Deep Dive

Gold Analysis

Conviction mapping, dispersion metrics, risk-reward profiles, and positioning signals across 12 firms.

Conviction vs Target

JPM
GS
BofA
UBS
Citi
MS
DB
HSBC
Barc
ANZ
Macq
WF

5-Day Price History

Estimated
Mon
$2,914
--
Tue
$2,908
-0.19%
Wed
$2,930
+0.76%
Thu
$2,937
+0.23%
Fri
$2,925
-0.41%

Dispersion Analysis

Std Deviation
$256
Target spread
Spread
$875
$2,800 - $3,675
IQR
$400
Interquartile range
CoV
7.8%
Coefficient of variation
Target Distribution Rail
JPM
GS
BofA
UBS
Citi
MS
DB
HSBC
Barc
ANZ
Macq
WF
$2,800Avg $3,281$3,675

Quarterly Consensus Detail

Q1 2026
$2,910
Baseline quarter
Range: $2,850 - $2,950
JPM$2,950
MS$2,850
Q2 2026
$3,046
+4.7% QoQ
Range: $2,850 - $3,200
UBS$3,200
Citi$2,850
Q3 2026
$3,167
+4.0% QoQ
Range: $2,750 - $3,400
UBS$3,400
Citi$2,750
Q4 2026
$3,281
+3.6% QoQ
Range: $2,800 - $3,675
JPM$3,675
Citi$2,800

Risk-Reward Matrix

Spot: $2,920.00
0%11 of 12 firms meet criteria
0%15%30%
FirmTargetUpsideDownsideRatioVisual
JPM2x+
$3,675+25.9%-4.1%6.3x
WF2x+
$3,600+23.3%-4.1%5.7x
DB2x+
$3,450+18.2%-7.5%2.4x
BofA
$3,500+19.9%-11.0%1.8x
UBS
$3,400+16.4%-9.2%1.8x
GS
$3,300+13.0%-7.5%1.7x
ANZ
$3,350+14.7%-9.2%1.6x
MS
$3,200+9.6%-11.0%0.9x
Barc
$3,100+6.2%-14.4%0.4x
Macq
$3,050+4.5%-14.4%0.3x
HSBC
$2,950+1.0%-14.4%0.1x

Positioning Signals

Bullish (11)
JPMVery Bullish
$3,675
+25.9%
WFVery Bullish
$3,600
+23.3%
BofAVery Bullish
$3,500
+19.9%
DBBullish
$3,450
+18.2%
UBSVery Bullish
$3,400
+16.4%
ANZBullish
$3,350
+14.7%
GSBullish
$3,300
+13.0%
MSBullish
$3,200
+9.6%
BarcBullish
$3,100
+6.2%
MacqBullish
$3,050
+4.5%
HSBCBullish
$2,950
+1.0%
Cautious (1)
CitiNeutral
$2,800
-4.1%
Probability-Weighted Price (Scenarios)
$3,308
vs Spot
+13.3%

Price Milestones

Next Milestone
$3,000
Distance from Spot
+2.7%
$80 away
$2,500Spot Progress: 28.0%$4,000
$2,500Reached
12/12 base
$2,750Reached
12/12 base
$3,000Within 2.7%
10/12 base12 bull
$3,250
7/12 base10 bull
$3,500
3/12 base8 bull
$3,750
0/12 base5 bull
$4,000
0/12 base3 bull

Conviction Confidence

Firms with a tighter spread between their bull and bear case scenarios demonstrate higher conviction in their base case target. A score above 70 suggests strong confidence; below 60 suggests wider uncertainty.

HSBC
76.3
$2,500 - $3,200($700 wide)
GS
72.7
$2,700 - $3,600($900 wide)
MS
71.9
$2,600 - $3,500($900 wide)
Citi
71.4
$2,400 - $3,200($800 wide)
Barc
71.0
$2,500 - $3,400($900 wide)
Macq
70.5
$2,500 - $3,400($900 wide)
ANZ
68.7
$2,650 - $3,700($1,050 wide)
DB
68.1
$2,700 - $3,800($1,100 wide)
JPM
67.3
$2,800 - $4,000($1,200 wide)
WF
66.7
$2,800 - $4,000($1,200 wide)
UBS
66.2
$2,650 - $3,800($1,150 wide)
BofA
60.0
$2,600 - $4,000($1,400 wide)

Consensus Drift Tracker

+$371 (+12.7%)

Consensus is drifting upward through 2026, with an average increase of $371 from Q1 to Q4.

Q1 2026
$2,910
Baseline
Q2 2026
$3,046
+$136 (+4.7%)
Q3 2026
$3,167
+$121 (+4.0%)
Q4 2026
$3,281
+$114 (+3.6%)