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Gold XAU/USD

2026 Projections · 12 Banks

Closed$2,920.00+26.86 (+0.92%)
$3,281
Updated just now
OverviewForecastsAnalysisThemesTechnicalsMacroTrack Record

All Firm Projections

12 firms
FirmYE 2026Stance
JP Morgan
$3,675Very Bullish
Wells Fargo
$3,600Very Bullish
Bank of America
$3,500Very Bullish
Deutsche Bank
$3,450Bullish
UBS
$3,400Very Bullish
ANZ
$3,350Bullish
Goldman Sachs
$3,300Bullish
Morgan Stanley
$3,200Bullish
Barclays
$3,100Bullish
Macquarie
$3,050Bullish
HSBC
$2,950Bullish
Citigroup
$2,800Neutral
Consensus
$3,28111/12 Bullish

Forecast vs Live

HSBC
Bullish
Live: $2,920.00
$2,950
+1.0% to target$30 above
Citigroup
Neutral
Live: $2,920.00
$2,800
-4.1% to target$120 below
Macquarie
Bullish
Live: $2,920.00
$3,050
+4.5% to target$130 above
Barclays
Bullish
Live: $2,920.00
$3,100
+6.2% to target$180 above
Morgan Stanley
Bullish
Live: $2,920.00
$3,200
+9.6% to target$280 above
Goldman Sachs
Bullish
Live: $2,920.00
$3,300
+13.0% to target$380 above
ANZ
Bullish
Live: $2,920.00
$3,350
+14.7% to target$430 above
UBS
Very Bullish
Live: $2,920.00
$3,400
+16.4% to target$480 above
Deutsche Bank
Bullish
Live: $2,920.00
$3,450
+18.2% to target$530 above
Bank of America
Very Bullish
Live: $2,920.00
$3,500
+19.9% to target$580 above
Wells Fargo
Very Bullish
Live: $2,920.00
$3,600
+23.3% to target$680 above
JP Morgan
Very Bullish
Live: $2,920.00
$3,675
+25.9% to target$755 above

Accuracy Leaderboard

Firms ranked by proximity of Q1 estimate to current live price

1
Bank of America
Distance
$5
+0.2%
2
Goldman Sachs
Distance
$20
-0.7%
3
Citigroup
Distance
$20
-0.7%
4
Deutsche Bank
Distance
$20
-0.7%
5
ANZ
Distance
$20
-0.7%
6
Macquarie
Distance
$20
-0.7%
7
JP Morgan
Distance
$30
+1.0%
8
UBS
Distance
$30
+1.0%
9
HSBC
Distance
$30
+1.0%
10
Wells Fargo
Distance
$30
+1.0%
11
Morgan Stanley
Distance
$70
-2.4%
12
Barclays
Distance
$70
-2.4%

Firm Scorecards

JP Morgan
Gregory Shearer
Very Bullish
$3,675+25.9%
Bull
$4.0k
Bear
$2.8k
Range
$1,200
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Central BanksAllocationETF Flows
Revised: Feb 2Q1 accuracy: $30 dist
Wells Fargo
Investment Institute Team
Very Bullish
$3,600+23.3%
Bull
$4.0k
Bear
$2.8k
Range
$1,200
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Central BanksAllocationUSD Weakness
Revised: Feb 1Q1 accuracy: $30 dist
Bank of America
Michael Widmer
Very Bullish
$3,500+19.9%
Bull
$4.0k
Bear
$2.6k
Range
$1,400
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
AllocationSupplyETF Flows
Revised: Jan 23Q1 accuracy: $5 dist
Deutsche Bank
Michael Hsueh
Bullish
$3,450+18.2%
Bull
$3.8k
Bear
$2.7k
Range
$1,100
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Central BanksSupplyETF Flows
Revised: Feb 5Q1 accuracy: $20 dist
UBS
Joni Teves
Very Bullish
$3,400+16.4%
Bull
$3.8k
Bear
$2.6k
Range
$1,150
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Central BanksETF FlowsFed / Rates
Revised: Feb 10Q1 accuracy: $30 dist
ANZ
Daniel Hynes · Soni Kumari
Bullish
$3,350+14.7%
Bull
$3.7k
Bear
$2.6k
Range
$1,050
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Central BanksGeopoliticsSupply
Revised: Feb 15Q1 accuracy: $20 dist
Goldman Sachs
Lina Thomas · Daan Struyven
Bullish
$3,300+13.0%
Bull
$3.6k
Bear
$2.7k
Range
$900
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Central BanksETF FlowsAllocation
Revised: Jan 15Q1 accuracy: $20 dist
Morgan Stanley
Amy Gower
Bullish
$3,200+9.6%
Bull
$3.5k
Bear
$2.6k
Range
$900
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
USD WeaknessETF FlowsCentral Banks
Revised: Jan 20Q1 accuracy: $70 dist
Barclays
Metals Research Team
Bullish
$3,100+6.2%
Bull
$3.4k
Bear
$2.5k
Range
$900
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Fed / RatesUSD WeaknessSupply
Revised: Jan 15Q1 accuracy: $70 dist
Macquarie
Peter Taylor
Bullish
$3,050+4.5%
Bull
$3.4k
Bear
$2.5k
Range
$900
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Fed / RatesSupplyGeopolitics
Revised: Jan 18Q1 accuracy: $20 dist
HSBC
James Steel
Bullish
$2,950+1.0%
Bull
$3.2k
Bear
$2.5k
Range
$700
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
GeopoliticsInflationFed / Rates
Revised: Jan 8Q1 accuracy: $30 dist
Citigroup
Aakash Doshi
Neutral
$2,800-4.1%
Bull
$3.2k
Bear
$2.4k
Range
$800
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Fed / RatesGeopoliticsAllocation
Revised: Jan 10Q1 accuracy: $20 dist

Revision Timeline

When firms last updated their gold outlook

ANZ
Feb 15, 2026
23d ago$3,350Latest
UBS
Feb 10, 2026
28d ago$3,400
DB
Feb 5, 2026
33d ago$3,450
JPM
Feb 2, 2026
36d ago$3,675
WF
Feb 1, 2026
37d ago$3,600
BofA
Jan 23, 2026
46d ago$3,500
MS
Jan 20, 2026
49d ago$3,200
Macq
Jan 18, 2026
51d ago$3,050
GS
Jan 15, 2026
54d ago$3,300
Barc
Jan 15, 2026
54d ago$3,100
Citi
Jan 10, 2026
59d ago$2,800
HSBC
Jan 8, 2026
61d ago$2,950

Target Distribution

Price Bin Histogram

Number of firms targeting each $100 price range — consensus average shown as dashed line

$2.8k
Citi
$2.9k
HSBC
$3.0k
Macq
$3.1k
Barc
$3.2k
MS
$3.3k
GS, ANZ
$3.4k
UBS, DB
$3.5k
BofA
$3.6k+
JPM, WF
Distribution Statistics
Skewness
left (bearish)
Mean $3,281 vs Median $3,325
Concentration
$3.3k
2 firms in the modal bin
Outliers (>1.5σ)
JPM, Citi
$3,675, $2,800

Conviction Ranges

Bear → Bull Case Ranges

Sorted by range width — widest conviction spread at top

$2,400
$2,800
$3,200
$3,600
$4,000
BofA
$1,400
$2,600$3,500$4,000
JPM
$1,200
$2,800$3,675$4,000
WF
$1,200
$2,800$3,600$4,000
UBS
$1,150
$2,650$3,400$3,800
DB
$1,100
$2,700$3,450$3,800
ANZ
$1,050
$2,650$3,350$3,700
GS
$900
$2,700$3,300$3,600
MS
$900
$2,600$3,200$3,500
Barc
$900
$2,500$3,100$3,400
Macq
$900
$2,500$3,050$3,400
Citi
$800
$2,400$2,800$3,200
HSBC
$700
$2,500$2,950$3,200
Bear Case
Base Target
Bull Case
Live Spot