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BCB

Banco Central do Brasil

BCBBrazil·BRL

Selic

14.25%

as of 2026-03-19

Next meeting

Jun 16-17

T-16d

The Banco Central do Brasil conducts monetary policy for Brazil under a formal inflation-targeting regime, with the Selic rate as its main policy instrument. The Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) meets eight times per year over two days to set the policy rate.

Meeting Schedule (2026)

Jan 27-28Mar 17-18Apr 28-29Jun 16-17Aug 4-5Sep 15-16Nov 3-4Dec 8-9

Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.

Primary Currency

BRL

Cross-firm view, consensus targets, and live rate

Selic

14.25%

As of 2026-03-19

BRL 2026 consensus

5.10

median of 18 banks

BRL net longs (CFTC)

10,240

latest as of May 19

-3,123 WoW

Next macro event

Industrial Production MoM (Apr)

Jun 3

Upcoming Macro Calendar — Brazil

Next 8 high+medium impact events (next 30d)

Date	Event	Country	Impact	Consensus	Previous
Wed, Jun 3	Industrial Production MoM (Apr)	BR	Med	-0.4%	0.1%
Wed, Jun 3	S&P Global Services PMI (May)	BR	Med	51.9	52.3
Wed, Jun 3	Balance of Trade (May)	BR	Med	9.9 B	10.54 B
Fri, Jun 5	CFTC BRL speculative net positions	BR	Med	—	71.7 K
Wed, Jun 10	Inflation Rate YoY (May)	BR	Med	4.6%	4.39%
Wed, Jun 10	Inflation Rate MoM (May)	BR	Med	0.5%	0.67%
Fri, Jun 12	Retail Sales MoM (Apr)	BR	Med	—	0.5%
Fri, Jun 12	Inflation Rate YoY (May)	BR	Med	4.6%	4.39%

Bank Consensus on BRL

Aggregated 2026 year-end target across 18 sell-side firms

Median vs spot: +1.0%

Median

5.10

Spread

1.20

Top Bull

BNP5.70

Top Bear

ING4.50

All Firms · Bear → Bull

ING4.50 UBS4.80 HSBC4.85 StanChart5.00 NMR5.00 DB5.05 CBK5.10 RBC5.10 MS5.10 BofA5.10 MUFG5.15 Citi5.20 GS5.20 BARC5.20 SG5.35 Mizuho5.35 JPM5.55 BNP5.70

CFTC Positioning — BRL

Updated 12 days ago

Non-commercial net longs over the past 8 weeks. Latest report: May 19, 2026 for BCB

Latest net

10,240

BRL non-commercial contracts

WoW change

-3,123

-3,123 WoW

8-week trend

oldest → newest

Firm Coverage

Reports referencing BCB across covered research desks

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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

Institutional FX coverage in your inbox

Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.