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MUFG

2026 FX Outlook: Post-Peak USD World

LIVE19 December 2025USD bearish
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USD/ZAR

ZAR undervalued relative to commodity terms of trade. GNU political stability re

Bullish

MUFG Forecast Path

Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison

Key Drivers

Commodity terms of trade
GNU stability
SARB easing
Fiscal trajectory
Load shedding improvement

All Firm Targets (Dec '26)

JPMBullish16.25
INGBullish16.25
BARCBullish16.10
MUFGBullish16.00
GSBullish16.00
BofABullish15.80
MSBullish15.75
DBStrongly Bullish15.50

Analysis Summary

ZAR undervalued relative to commodity terms of trade. GNU political stability reduces risk premium. SARB easing supports domestic growth. USD/ZAR to decline to 16.00 by year-end.