MUFG
2026 FX Outlook: Post-Peak USD World
LIVE19 December 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesModerately Bullish
USD/BRL
BRL offers high carry but October elections create binary risk. BCB easing cycle
MUFG Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Presidential elections Oct
Carry appeal
BCB rate path
Fiscal framework
Commodity exports
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMBullish5.55
GSBullish5.20
ING5.20
BARCNeutral5.20
MUFGModerately Bullish5.15
MSModerately Bullish5.10
BofAModerately Bullish5.10
DBBullish5.05
Analysis Summary
BRL offers high carry but October elections create binary risk. BCB easing cycle supports growth without aggressive rate cuts. Prefer options-based exposure. USD/BRL to reach 5.15 by Q4 if reform agenda holds.