J.P. Morgan
Global FX Strategy 2026
LIVE25 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
AUD/USD
More compelling carry
JPM Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
RBA rate path
Pension fund hedging
Credit cycle
Base metals
China growth
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
INGVery Bullish0.7300
DBBullish0.7200
MSBullish0.7100
GSBullish0.7000
MUFGBullish0.7000
BofABullish0.7000
BARCBullish0.6900
JPMBullish0.6800
Key Issues for 2026
1.Relative high yielder in G10
2.RBA sidelined through 2026 on elevated inflation
3.Pension fund hedge ratio structural rise
4.Credit growth at post-GFC highs
5.Bullish technical setup - triangle breakout potential
Analysis Summary
Stronger growth and consistently improving rate spreads leave AUD as a relative high yielder in G10. Elevated inflation will keep the RBA sidelined through 2026. Likelihood of structural rise in pension fund hedge ratios is also supportive. Credit growth is at post-GFC highs.